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. 2021 Oct 11;11:20101. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-99105-2

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Performance of the inclusive model (a). Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves for predictions of the inclusive model on the prospective test set. The light band around the curve represents pointwise 95% confidence intervals derived by bootstrapping. (b) A plot of the precision (positive predictive value, PPV) against the recall (sensitivity) of the predictor for different thresholds. The light band around the curve represents pointwise 95% confidence intervals derived by bootstrapping. (c) Calibration plot, plotting the observed outcome against the predicted probabilities. The diagonal gray line represents perfect calibration. A smoothed line is fit to the curve, and points are drawn to represent the averages in ten discretized bins. The rug under the plot illustrates the distribution of predictions.