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. 2021 Oct 12;161:105237. doi: 10.1016/j.micpath.2021.105237

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Fig. 3 — The probability distribution for the day of the first emergence for each of the higher-order variants within a two-year period. The figure shows the results of 10,000 runs of the simulations shown in Fig. 2b, for the same parameters. Note that the probability of emergence of an order-4 variant is low because the epidemic usually burns out first. The time of emergence of several important variants is indicated with an arrow (D614G: February 2020; Alpha (α) 9/2020; Beta (β) 9/2020; Gamma (γ) 12/2020; Delta (δ) 12/2020).