Table 1.

Anthropometric effects of ENSO.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Weight-for-age	Weight-for-height	Body mass index	Probability below WHO Standard for
				Underweight	Wasted
May–December mean NINO 3.4 (°C)	−0.0251**	−0.0377***	−0.0381***	0.00588**	0.00319
Std. error	(0.0105)	(0.0130)	(0.0132)	(0.00264)	(0.00251)
p value	0.0234	0.00654	0.00674	0.0329	0.213
95% CI: lower	−0.0466	−0.0641	−0.0649	0.00051	−0.00192
95% CI: upper	−0.00363	−0.0113	−0.0113	0.0113	0.00829
NINO3.4* I(>50% Pos. Precip.)	0.0733***	0.0489	0.0370	−0.0195***	−0.00717
p value	0.00239	0.114	0.270	0.000373	0.105
Dependent variable mean	−0.931	−0.228	−0.0895	0.204	0.100
Observations	1,253,176	1,205,335	1,206,659	1,253,176	1,205,335
R-squared	0.129	0.093	0.081	0.087	0.040

Child weight-for-age (1), weight-for-height (2), and body mass index z-scores (3), which all measure shorter-run effects of scarce nutrition, are negatively associated with contemporaneous mean NINO3.4 state (°C), except in areas where precipitation is positively correlated with NINO3.4. Estimates are from OLS regressions with controls consisting of: fixed effects (indicators) for each country; country-specific mother’s age at child’s birth, total years of mother’s education, and rural vs. urban indicator; as well as UNICEF world region-specific linear trends in survey year and fixed effects for the month of interview. Standard errors are two-way clustered at the level of tropical year and subnational administrative unit, and observations are reweighted using DHS sample weights and country size weights in order for estimates to be representative for an average country. (4–5) WHO threshold outcomes show that a warmer ENSO state increases the likelihood of being underweight (below −2σ in weight-for-age) but shows a weaker, statistically insignificant effect on wasting (below −2σ in weight-for-height). Asterisks indicate statistical significance at the 1% (***), 5% (**), and 10% (*) levels (two-sided t test, single hypothesis).