Table 1.

Model calibration targets and demographic assumptions

Target/assumption	Calibration range* or assumed value	Reference
Proportion of prevalent TB occurring among children under 15 years, in 2020	0.0975–0.1625	2018 WHO estimate for India of 0.13 [1]
Prevalence of TB in the low-risk subpopulation in 2020	150–250 per 100,000	Assumption of 200 per 100,000 in non-slum dwellers [15]
Prevalence of TB in the high-risk subpopulation in 2020	345–575 per 100,000	Assumption of 460 per 100,000 among slum-dwellers [26]
Annual rate of TB infection (ARTI) in the high-risk subpopulation in 2020	1.5–2.5%	Assumption of 2% mean rate [27]
Annual TB-related mortality rate in 2020	24.75–41.25 per 100,000	2018 WHO estimate for India of 33 per 100,00 [1]
Annual percentage decline in TB incidence, between 2000 and 2020	1.5–2.5%	WHO estimate for India between 2000 and 2018 of 2% [1]
Proportion of prevalent TB that is asymptomatic in 2020	0.45–0.75	Assumption of 0.6 mean proportion [28]
Proportion of urban population in the high-risk subpopulation	0.24	United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals database estimate of slum-dwelling population [29]
Proportion of the population under 15 years	0.27	Populationpyramid.net [30]
Annual birth rate	0.0197	Populationpyramid.net [30]

*The ranges are taken to be ± 25% around the point estimates from the corresponding references