Table 1.
Performance scores, reflected as pooled AUC, per country for each risk score
| Hospital admissions | ED visits | Any hospital visit | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy, N (%) | 220 (44.1) | 166 (33.3) | 259 (51.9) |
| Risk score | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.57 (0.51–0.62) | 0.56 (0.50–0.61) | 0.58 (0.53–0.63) |
| CARS | 0.61 (0.55–0.65) | 0.58 (0.53–0.63) | 0.62 (0.57–0.67) |
| EARLI | 0.60 (0.55–0.65) | 0.54 (0.48–0.59) | 0.67 (0.52–0.62) |
| PAA-score | 0.61 (0.57–0.66) | 0.63 (0.58–0.68) | 0.62 (0.57–0.67) |
| CHESS | 0.57 (0.52–0.62) | 0.52 (0.47–0.57) | 0.57 (0.52–0.61) |
| FFC | 0.55 (0.50–0.60) | 0.51 (0.46–0.56) | 0.53 (0.48–0.58) |
| FI | 0.54 (0.49–0.59) | 0.52 (0.47–0.57) | 0.52 (0.47–0.57) |
| the Netherlands, N (%) | 41 (17.0) | 27 (11.1) | 58 (23.6) |
| Risk score | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.58 (0.47–0.68) | 0.65 (0.53–0.75) | 0.60 (0.50–0.69) |
| CARS | 0.55 (0.43–0.65) | 0.63 (0.49–0.74) | 0.58 (0.48–0.67) |
| EARLI | 0.55 (0.43–0.65) | 0.60 (0.46–0.73) | 0.56 (0.46–0.66) |
| PAA-score | 0.53 (0.44–0.62) | 0.54 (0.45–0.63) | 0.55 (0.47–0.63) |
| CHESS | 0.52 (0.41–0.63) | 0.60 (0.48–0.71) | 0.53 (0.44–0.63) |
| FFC | 0.52 (0.42–0.62) | 0.57 (0.42–0.71) | 0.52 (0.43–0.60) |
| FI | 0.56 (0.45–0.66) | 0.54 (0.38–0.68) | 0.56 (0.46–0.66) |
| Belgium, N (%) | 66 (14.0) | 15 (3.3) | 71 (15.2) |
| Risk score | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.68 (0.59–0.75) | 0.68 (0.51–0.81) | 0.67 (0.59–0.74) |
| CARS | 0.67 (0.55–0.77) | 0.68 (0.47–0.83) | 0.66 (0.56–0.75) |
| EARLI | 0.63 (0.55–0.71) | 0.70 (0.51–0.84) | 0.63 (0.55–0.71) |
| PAA-score | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) | 0.70 (0.55–0.81) | 0.67 (0.61–0.73) |
| CHESS | 0.57 (0.50–0.64) | 0.54 (0.39–0.68) | 0.57 (0.50–0.64) |
| FFC | 0.55 (0.48–0.62) | 0.57 (0.44–0.70) | 0.55 (0.49–0.62) |
| FI | 0.53 (0.45–0.60) | 0.52 (0.39–0.65) | 0.53 (0.46–0.60) |
| Iceland, N (%) | 75 (21.0) | 30 (8.4) | 92 (25.8) |
| Risk score (range) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.73 (0.66–0.79) | 0.67 (0.55–0.77) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) |
| CARS | 0.72 (0.65–0.79) | 0.72 (0.61–0.81) | 0.74 (0.67–0.80) |
| EARLI | 0.72 (0.65–0.79) | 0.55 (0.43–0.67) | 0.69 (0.61–0.75) |
| PAA-score | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) | 0.65 (0.55–0.74) | 0.69 (0.63–0.75) |
| CHESS | 0.57 (0.50–0.64) | 0.58 (0.48–0.67) | 0.58 (0.51–0.64) |
| FFC | 0.58 (0.49–0.66) | 0.53 (0.43–0.63) | 0.56 (0.48–0.64) |
| FI | 0.60 (0.53–0.67) | 0.55 (0.45–0.65) | 0.60 (0.53–0.67) |
| Finland, N (%) | 87 (20.0) | 85 (19.6) | 142 (32.7) |
| Risk score (range) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.69 (0.62–0.75) | 0.72 (0.67–0.77) | 0.73 (0.67–0.77) |
| CARS | 0.63 (0.56–0.69) | 0.61 (0.54–0.67) | 0.64 (0.58–0.70) |
| EARLI | 0.62 (0.55–0.69) | 0.57 (0.50–0.64) | 0.60 (0.54–0.65) |
| PAA-score | 0.66 (0.59–0.72) | 0.70 (0.63–0.76) | 0.69 (0.64–0.74) |
| CHESS | 0.55 (0.48–0.61) | 0.56 (0.49–0.62) | 0.53 (0.48–0.59) |
| FFC | 0.56 (0.50–0.61) | 0.55 (0.49–0.61) | 0.55 (0.50–0.61) |
| FI | 0.61 (0.54–0.68) | 0.54 (0.47–0.61) | 0.58 (0.52–0.64) |
| Germany, N (%) | 51 (11.5) | 19 (4.3) | 63 (14.2) |
| Risk score (range) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95% CI) | Pooled AUC (95%-CI) |
| DIVERT | 0.64 (0.55–0.72) | 0.52 (0.38–0.66) | 0.62 (0.54–0.70) |
| CARS | 0.59 (0.50–0.68) | 0.54 (0.40–0.68) | 0.59 (0.51–0.67) |
| EARLI | 0.65 (0.56–0.73) | 0.59 (0.45–0.72) | 0.65 (0.57–0.72) |
| PAA-score | 0.61 (0.54–0.68) | 0.55 (0.44–0.66) | 0.61 (0.54–0.67) |
| CHESS | 0.59 (0.50–0.67) | 0.53 (0.40–0.65) | 0.56 (0.48–0.63) |
| FFC | 0.54 (0.45–0.61) | 0.58 (0.44–0.71) | 0.51 (0.43–0.58) |
| FI | 0.51 (0.42–0.60) | 0.52 (0.38–0.66) | 0.52 (0.43–0.60) |
Abbreviations: 95% CI 95% confidence interval; AUC area under the curve; CARS Community Assessment Risk Screen; CHESS MDS Changes in Health, End-stage disease and Symptoms and Signs; DIVERT Detection of Indicators and Vulnerabilities for Emergency Room Trips; EARLI Emergency Admission Risk Likelihood Index; ED emergency department; FFC Fried’s frailty criteria; FI frailty index; PAA previous acute admissions. Number of imputed outcomes per country [unplanned admissions - ED visits - any unplanned hospital visit]: Italy [3 - 2 - 3]; Netherlands [48 - 47 - 48]; Belgium [38 - 36 - 38]; Iceland [15 - 15 - 15]; Finland [20 - 20 - 20]; Germany [46 - 46 - 46]