Table 3. Parameter estimates from the age-varying FOI reverse catalytic model (median [95% CrI]).
FOI was allowed to vary across study, while waning was simultaneously estimated across all studies. The relative change in FOI (Alpha) and the cut-off were allowed to vary across study settings.
| Strain | First Author | FOI (youngest
age group) |
Relative change
in FOI (Alpha) |
Age at which
the FOI changes (cut-off) |
Waning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCoV-229E | Shao | 1.06 (0.57 – 1.68) | 0.78 (0.35 – 1.68) | 9.5 (0.59 – 19.47) | 0.27 (0.14 - 0.51) |
| Zhou | 0.11 (0.06 – 0.3) | 1.57 (0.8 – 2.65) | 2.35 (0.31 – 17.51) | ||
| Cavallaro | 0.02 (0.01 - 0.05) | 0.72 (0.3 - 1.17) | 9.14 (0.57 - 19.28) | ||
| HCoV-HKU1 | Chan | 0.59 (0.32 – 0.89) | 2.27 (1.44 – 3.45) | 16.58 (7.71 – 19.81) | |
| Zhou | 0.64 (0.35 – 0.96) | 1.57 (0.8 – 2.65) | 2.35 (0.31 – 17.51) | ||
| HCoV-OC43 | Zhou | 0.07 (0.04 – 0.19) | 1.57 (0.8 – 2.65) | 2.35 (0.31 – 17.51) | |
| Monto | 0.19 (0.11 – 0.35) | 0.72 (0.3 – 1.17) | 9.14 (0.57 – 19.28) | ||
| Sarateanu | 0.5 (0.27 – 0.74) | 2.48 (1.96 – 2.99) | 9.93 (7.34 – 14.84) | ||
| HCoV-NL63 | Zhou | 0.41 (0.26 – 0.67) | 1.57 (0.8 – 2.65) | 2.35 (0.31 – 17.51) | |
| Shao | 1.06 (0.57 – 1.68) | 0.78 (0.35 – 1.68) | 9.5 (0.59 – 19.47) |
Human coronavirus (HCoV), force of infection (FOI).