Table 2. Description of models explored.
| Model | Priors | Number of
parameters |
|---|---|---|
| Main model:
Reverse catalytic model with age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off varying across settings) - More informed priors |
FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
21 |
| Reverse catalytic model with
age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off varying across settings) - less informed priors |
FOI ~ normal(0.3,0.5)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
21 |
| Reverse catalytic model with
age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off varying across settings, waning varying by strain) |
FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
24 |
| Reverse catalytic model with
age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off held across settings) |
FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
13 |
| Reverse catalytic model with
age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off varying across settings) including data <1 Year |
FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
21 |
| Reverse catalytic model with
age-varying FOI (alpha and cut-off varying across settings, waning varying by assay) |
FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) Alpha ~ gamma(shape = 5, scale = 0.2) Cut-off ~ uniform(0,20) |
24 |
| Reverse catalytic model | FOI ~ gamma(shape = 1.2, scale = 0.25)
Waning ~ uniform(0,5) |
11 |
Force of infection (FOI), relative change in FOI (Alpha,α), age at which the FOI changes (Cut-off).