Table 3. Model projections of the HCV-related morbidity and mortality due to the SQ and EL scenarios over 2018 to 2030.
DALYs are discounted at a rate of 3.5% per annum. The values represent the median and 95% UIs across 1,151 model fits.
| 2030 Estimates | SQ | EL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| People living with hepatitis C in 2030 (millions) | Total | 8.99 (8.12–10.00) | 1.21 (1.05–1.39) |
| Averted | -- | 7.78 (7.03–8.66) | |
| % Reduction | -- | 86.5% (85.5%–87.4%) | |
| Cumulative hepatitis C–related deaths 2018–2030 | Total | 1,153,000 (811,000–1,678,000) | 821,000 (589,000–1,105,000) |
| Averted | -- | 333,000 (219,000–509,000) | |
| % Reduction | -- | 28.9% (25.2%–33.1%) | |
| Total DALYs* 2018–2030 (millions) | Total | 24.06 (18.58–31.42) | 18.53 (14.61–23.43) |
| Averted | -- | 5.57 (3.80–8.22) | |
| % Reduction | -- | 23.2% (19.6%–27.5%) |
*Total DALYs = Years Lived with Disability (YLD) + Years of Life Lost (YLL).
DALY, disability-adjusted life year; EL, elimination; HCV, hepatitis C virus; SQ, status quo; UI, uncertainty interval.