Table 5.
Outdoor exercise trips (Survey Group 1): RPOPHM model estimation and average marginal effects a.
| Variable Description | RPOPHM Model |
Marginal Effects |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficient | t-stat | [y = 1] | [y = 2] | [y = 3] | [y = 4] | |
| Constant | 0.780 | 9.488 | – | – | – | – |
| Household social grade (1 if managerial/professional occupation, 0 otherwise) | 0.285 | 3.338 | −0.0855 | 0.0024 | 0.0093 | 0.0739 |
| Household social grade (1 if semi-skilled/unskilled manual occupation or unemployed, 0 otherwise) | −0.305 | −2.850 | 0.0921 | −0.0079 | −0.0117 | −0.0735 |
| Mode of travel prior to lockdown (1 if active travel used frequently, 0 if not used frequently) | 0.491 | 4.321 | −0.1415 | −0.0059 | 0.0119 | 0.1355 |
| Ethnic background (1 if ethnic minority group, 0 otherwise) | −0.825 | −2.652 | 0.2457 | −0.0489 | −0.0368 | −0.1600 |
| Gender (1 if male, 0 otherwise) | 0.131 | 1.511 | −0.0412 | −0.068 | 0.0028 | 0.0452 |
| Standard deviation of parameter density function | 0.728 | 3.347 | ||||
| Health problem or disability (1 if yes, 0 if no) | −1.854 | −4.775 | 0.3228 | −0.0954 | −0.0522 | −0.1751 |
| Standard deviation of parameter density function | 1.566 | 4.327 | ||||
| Current working situation (1 if furloughed, 0 otherwise) | 0.326 | 2.282 | −0.0960 | −0.0052 | 0.0083 | 0.0929 |
| Standard deviation of parameter density function | 0.805 | 2.613 | ||||
| Age indicator (1 if over 65, 0 otherwise) | −0.552 | −2.059 | 0.0342 | −0.0123 | −0.0062 | −0.0157 |
| Standard deviation of parameter density function | 1.083 | 3.618 | ||||
| Directly affected by COVID-19 (1 if yes, 0 if no) | 0.563 | 1.952 | −0.0122 | −0.0026 | 0.0004 | 0.0144 |
| Standard deviation of parameter density function | 0.519 | 1.660 | ||||
|
Heterogeneity in the mean of RP Health problem or disability: Mode of travel used prior to lockdown – personal vehicle |
0.877 | 2.343 | −0.0960 | −0.0052 | 0.0083 | 0.0929 |
|
Heterogeneity in the mean of RP Age indicator (over 65): Mode of travel used prior to lockdown – personal vehicle |
0.503 | 1.676 | −0.0283 | 0.0070 | 0.0047 | 0.0167 |
|
Heterogeneity in the mean of RP Directly affected by COVID-19: White British ethnic background |
−0.582 | −1.994 | 0.0390 | 0.0036 | −0.0027 | −0.0399 |
| Threshold 1 | 0.656 | 11.856 | – | – | – | – |
| Threshold 2 | 0.958 | 13.124 | – | – | – | – |
| Number of observations | 1605 | – | – | – | – | |
| LLCONSTANT/LL(βFPOP) | −1960.04/−1858.02 | – | – | – | – | |
| LL at convergence, LL(βRPOPHM) | −1835.36 | – | – | – | – | |
| AICCONSTANT/AICFPOP | 3926.08/3740.04 | – | – | – | – | |
| AIC at convergence, (AICRPOPHM) | 3710.72 | – | – | – | – | |
LRT (I): RPOPHM > FPOP with >99.99% l.o.c.; LRT (II): RPOPHM > RPOP with >99.90% l.o.c.
a
RP = random parameter, LL = log-likelihood, AIC = Akaike Information Criterion, t-stats > 1.65 are significant at >90% l.o.c., t-stats > 1.96 are significant at >95% l.o.c., grey fill = heterogeneity in the mean of random parameters (where the term preceding “:” is the random parameter and the succeeding term is the exogenous influence) and their associated “indirect” marginal effects, LRT = Likelihood Ratio Test.