Table 1.

Assumptions for the prior probability distribution of the estimated parameters.

Parameter	Prior	Support
Fraction tested infected,${\rho }_t$	$\mathcal{U}\left(0,1\right)$	Uninformative for ${\rho }_t\in \left[0,1\right]$
Fraction of tested infected that die,${\rho }_d$	$\mathcal{N}\left(0.034,0.{01}^2\right)$	Mean set to the global estimate of WHO85
Recovery rate for untested infected,${\gamma }_t$	$\mathcal{U}\left(0,0.4\right)$	Range assumed from manual fit exploration (contains typical values for recovery rate25,47)
Recovery rate for untested infected,${\gamma }_u$	$\mathcal{U}\left(0,0.4\right)$	Similar assumptions as for ${\gamma }_t$
Reproduction number,${\mathcal{R}}_0$	$\mathcal{N}\left(4,1^2\right)$	Estimates from Ref.5
Transmission rate,$\beta$	Derived from other parameters using Eq. (2)
Number of exposed at the first data point,$E\left(0\right)$	$lnE\left(0\right)\sim \mathcal{N}\left(8,0.5^2\right)$	Refs.16,25 and manual fit exploration

$\mathcal{N}\left(\mu ,{\sigma }^2\right)$ denotes a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and variance ${\sigma }^2$. $\mathcal{U}\left(a,b\right)$ denotes a uniform distribution in the interval $\left(a,b\right)$.