Table 4.
Logistic Regression Modelling of Associations with Equine Fatality in Ontario Racing for Thoroughbred Race Events, by Event, 2003–2015.
| Events | 236,386 | |||||
| Fatalities | 433 | Conf. Int. | ||||
| Variable | Estimate | s.e.m. | p-value | OR † | Lower | Upper |
| Intercept | 3.0303 | 2.2249 | ||||
| AGE | 0.1144 | 0.0421 | 0.0066 | 1.1212 | 1.0324 | 1.2176 |
| SEX, G vs. F | −0.7057 | 0.2602 | 0.0067 | 0.4938 | 0.2965 | 0.8223 |
| SEX, S vs. F | 0.2087 | 0.3108 | 0.5019 | 1.2321 | 0.6700 | 2.2657 |
| SEX*CMYR, G vs. F † | 0.5392 | 0.1881 | 0.0041 | 1.7146 | 1.1859 | 2.4791 |
| SEX*CMYR, S vs. F † | 0.1353 | 0.2524 | 0.5920 | 1.1449 | 0.6981 | 1.8776 |
| FPOS, 2.5 vs. 12.5 | −9.8570 | 2.0706 | <.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.000001 | 0.0030 |
| FPOS, 5.5 vs. 12.5 | −6.4891 | 2.0789 | 0.0018 | 0.0015 | 0.000026 | 0.0894 |
| FPOS, 9 vs. 12.5 | −5.0902 | 2.0561 | 0.0133 | 0.0062 | 0.0001 | 0.3464 |
| RSIZE | −0.5124 | 0.1593 | 0.0013 | 0.5991 | 0.4384 | 0.8186 |
| RSIZEˆFPOS, 2.5 vs. 12.5 | 0.5753 | 0.1665 | 0.0005 | 1.7777 | 1.2827 | 2.4636 |
| RSIZEˆFPOS, 5.5 vs. 12.5 | 0.2608 | 0.1707 | 0.1265 | 1.2980 | 0.9289 | 1.8137 |
| RSIZEˆFPOS, 9 vs. 12.5 | 0.234 | 0.164 | 0.1537 | 1.2636 | 0.9163 | 1.7427 |
| DIST (f - furlongs) | −0.2019 | 0.1403 | 0.1501 | 0.8172 | 0.6207 | 1.0758 |
| DOWK, Fri vs. Wed | −1.7054 | 1.2647 | 0.1775 | 0.1817 | 0.0152 | 2.1671 |
| DOWK, Sat vs. Wed | −0.8539 | 1.1024 | 0.4386 | 0.4258 | 0.0491 | 3.6943 |
| DOWK, Sun vs. Wed | −1.9014 | 1.0293 | 0.0647 | 0.1494 | 0.0199 | 1.1230 |
| DOWK, Mon vs. Wed | −0.1059 | 1.1431 | 0.9262 | 0.8995 | 0.0957 | 8.4535 |
| DOWK, Tue vs. Wed | −1.8266 | 1.1241 | 0.1042 | 0.1610 | 0.0178 | 1.4574 |
| DOWK, Thu vs. Wed | 0.8666 | 1.3217 | 0.5121 | 2.3788 | 0.1784 | 31.7259 |
| DIST*DOWK, Fri vs. Wed † | 0.2169 | 0.1825 | 0.2347 | 1.2422 | 0.8687 | 1.7764 |
| DIST*DOWK, Sat vs. Wed † | 0.1418 | 0.1610 | 0.3784 | 1.1523 | 0.8405 | 1.5799 |
| DIST*DOWK, Sun vs. Wed † | 0.3101 | 0.1494 | 0.0380 | 1.3636 | 1.0174 | 1.8275 |
| DIST*DOWK, Mon vs. Wed † | 0.0527 | 0.1699 | 0.7566 | 1.0541 | 0.7556 | 1.4706 |
| DIST*DOWK, Tue vs. Wed † | 0.2968 | 0.1619 | 0.0668 | 1.3455 | 0.9797 | 1.8480 |
| DIST*DOWK, Thu vs. Wed † | −0.0620 | 0.1950 | 0.7504 | 0.9399 | 0.6413 | 1.3774 |
| CMD (/10) | 0.0479 | 0.0156 | 0.0021 | 1.0491 | 1.0175 | 1.0816 |
| CMYR (/10) | −0.3568 | 0.2224 | 0.1086 | 0.6999 | 0.4526 | 1.0823 |
| CMCAR (/10) | −0.1341 | 0.0307 | <0.0001 | 0.8745 | 0.8234 | 0.9287 |
† Result is a ratio of odds ratios. AGE—age, years; SEX—sex, F-female, G-gelding, S-stallion; DOWK—day of week for work-event; RSIZE—race field size; DIST—race or workout distance, furlongs, f; FPOS—race event finish position group, 2.5 (1–4), 5.5 (5, 6), 9 (7–11), 12.5 (>11); CMCAR—cumulative career races + workouts (divided by 10); CMYR—total races + workouts in season to current work-event (divided by 10); CMD—cumulative days in work from first to current work-event (divided by 10). Referents for categorical variables are in bold.