Table 3.
Observed and Predicted Calibration Targets from Published Studies
| Tolerance | Posterior Predicted | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Mean | Interval | Mean | 95% CI |
| Corley et al. (2013) | ||||
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women 50-54 | 15 | (12.9, 20.8) | 16.8 | (14.1, 19.9) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women 55-59 | 18 | (15.5, 25.0) | 20.3 | (17.4, 23.6) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women 60-64 | 22 | (19.4, 30.1) | 23.8 | (20.6, 27.1) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women 65-69 | 24 | (20.6, 33.4) | 27.0 | (23.5, 30.4) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women 70-74 | 26 | (21.5, 37.0) | 29.9 | (26.1, 33.4) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Women ≥75 | 26 | (20.8, 37.7) | 33.2 | (29.0, 37.2) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men 50-54 | 25 | (22.1, 34.2) | 26.0 | (22.7,29.6) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men 55-59 | 29 | (25.6, 39.7) | 30.7 | (26.8,34.6) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men 60-64 | 31 | (27.5, 42.3) | 35.1 | (30.9,39.3) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men 65-69 | 34 | (29.6, 46.9) | 39.2 | (34.4,43.8) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men 70-74 | 39 | (33.2, 54.6) | 42.7 | (37.4,47.7) |
| Adenoma Prevalence, Men ≥75 | 38 | (31.6, 53.9) | 46.6 | (40.4,52.1) |
| Pickhardt et al. (2003) * | ||||
| Percent of Detected Adenomas ≥ 10mm | 9.2 | (5.2, 13.2) | 12.2 | (10.7, 13.2) |
| Imperiale et al. (2000) | ||||
| Detected Preclinical Cancers per 1,000 People | 6.0 | (0.3, 117.1) | 2.4 | (1.8, 5.3) |
| Lieberman et al. (2008) * | ||||
| Preclinical CRCs per 1,000 Lesions 6 – 9mm | 2.5 | (0.0, 8.4) | 4.7 | (2.1, 7.6) |
| Preclinical CRCs per 1,000 Lesions ≥ 10mm | 32.8 | (11.6, 54.0) | 41.4 | (29.2, 52.9) |
| Church (2004) | ||||
| Preclinical CRCs per 1,000 Lesions [6, 10)mm | 2.4 | (0.0, 10.3) | 5.6 | (2.5,9.0) |
| Preclinical CRCs per 1,000 Lesions ≥ 10mm | 42.3 | (12.6, 72.1) | 36.7 | (24.3, 49.0) |
*
Size was reported categorically as ≤ 5mm, 6 to 9mm, and ≥ 10mm. We operationalized these categories as: [1, 5.5) mm, [5.5, 9.5) mm and ≥ 9.5 mm