Table 5.
Dose–response difference-in-differences estimates of the effect of Tulsa rally on log (COVID-19 cases)
| Absolute inflow | Relative inflow | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| Counties with low inflow | ||||
| June 20-June 25 (0–5 days after rally) | − 0.017 | − 0.018 | − 0.022 | − 0.024 |
| P-value | [0.510] | [0.538] | [0.712] | [0.375] |
| June 26-July 4 (6–14 days after rally) | − 0.059 | − 0.062 | − 0.063 | − 0.067 |
| P-value | [0.529] | [0.577] | [0.817] | [0.452] |
| June 5-July 19 (15–29 days after rally) | − 0.032 | − 0.034 | − 0.022 | − 0.027 |
| P-value | [0.519] | [0.644] | [0.250] | [0.529] |
| July 20 onward (30+ days after rally) | − 0.035 | − 0.036 | − 0.020 | − 0.025 |
| P-value | [0.577] | [0.904] | [0.337] | [0.615] |
| Counties with moderate- low inflow | ||||
| June 20-June 25 (0–5 days after rally) | − 0.011 | − 0.015 | − 0.001 | − 0.001 |
| P-value | [0.288] | [0.317] | [0.654] | [0.596] |
| June 26-July 4 (6–14 days after rally) | − 0.035 | − 0.043 | − 0.036 | − 0.039 |
| P-value | [0.365] | [0.365] | [0.779] | [0.731] |
| June 5-July 19 (15–29 days after rally) | − 0.075 | − 0.078 | − 0.045 | − 0.043 |
| P-value | [0.481] | [0.558] | [0.760] | [0.779] |
| July 20 onward (30+ days after rally) | − 0.101 | − 0.101 | − 0.068 | − 0.064 |
| P-value | [0.519] | [0.817] | [0.375] | [0.865] |
| Counties with moderate- high inflow | ||||
| June 20-June 25 (0–5 days after rally) | − 0.024 | − 0.018 | − 0.003 | 0.001 |
| P-value | [0.385] | [0.394] | [0.663] | [0.702] |
| June 26-July 4 (6–14 days after rally) | − 0.036 | − 0.039 | − 0.056 | − 0.054 |
| P-value | [0.250] | [0.221] | [0.192] | [0.298] |
| June 5-July 19 (15–29 days after rally) | − 0.067 | − 0.059 | − 0.053 | − 0.042 |
| P-value | [0.404] | [0.375] | [0.769] | [0.385] |
| July 20 onward (30+ days after rally) | − 0.064 | − 0.048 | 0.005 | 0.028 |
| P-value | [0.587] | [0.923] | [0.346] | [0.385] |
| Highest inflow county (Tulsa County) | ||||
| June 20-June 25 (0–5 days after rally) | − 0.006 | 0.001 | − 0.0002 | − 0.002 |
| P-value | [0.144] | [0.173] | [0.644] | [0.250] |
| June 26-July 4 (6–14 days after rally) | − 0.029 | − 0.030 | 0.011 | 0.007 |
| P-value | [0.260] | [0.212] | [0.202] | [0.308] |
| June 5-July 19 (15–29 days after rally) | − 0.047 | − 0.038 | − 0.047 | − 0.046 |
| P-value | [0.413] | [0.365] | [0.779] | [0.375] |
| July 20 onward (30+ days after rally) | − 0.057 | − 0.038 | − 0.064 | − 0.059 |
| P-value | [0.596] | [0.913] | [0.356] | [0.375] |
| N | 34,709 | 34,709 | 34,709 | 34,709 |
| Observable controls? | No | Yes | No | Yes |
Estimates are generated using weighted least squares. All estimates include county and day fixed effects as well as county specific linear time trends. State policy controls include log COVID-19 testing, an indicator for whether a state reopened restaurant or bars, an indicator for whether a state reopened retail services beyond curbside pickup, an indicator for whether a state reopened personal or pet care services, an indicator for whether a state reopened entertainment business, an indicator for whether a state reopened gyms, and an indicator for whether a state paused reopening. County weather controls include average temperature and an indicator for whether any measurable precipitation fell. BLM Protest control include an indicator for whether a County had a city with 100,000 or more population with a Black Lives Matter protest. Permutation based p-values are included inside the brackets below each point estimate (Buchmueller et al. 2011; Cunningham and Shah 2018)
*Significant at the 10% level, **Significant at the 5% level, ***Significant at the 1% level