Table 3.

Comparison of predictive capabilities for MARS, SVM, MLP models.

Parameter	First Layer						Second Layer
	Learning			Testing			Learning			Testing
	R	MAE	MAPE	R	MAE	MAPE	R	MAE	MAPE	R	MAE	MAPE
MARS
P (t = 1)	0.60	4.00	20.58	0.43	5.10	31.20	0.58	2.79	18.14	0.50	3.21	22.77
P (t = 2)	0.58	3.82	19.95	0.51	4.37	29.04	0.62	2.73	17.95	0.52	3.08	22.05
P (t = 3)	0.60	3.66	19.37	0.51	4.34	26.66	0.60	2.64	17.58	0.55	2.95	21.15
P (t = 4)	0.46	3.52	18.87	0.57	3.92	24.16	0.59	2.64	17.78	0.58	2.78	20.09
P (t = 5)	0.63	3.38	18.05	0.61	3.67	22.63	0.60	2.62	17.59	0.62	2.63	19.10
P (t = 6)	0.66	3.30	17.49	0.65	3.41	21.13	0.62	2.55	17.07	0.65	2.50	18.24
P (t = 7)	0.67	3.20	16.90	0.66	3.31	20.41	0.66	2.48	16.63	0.67	2.39	17.50
P (me)	0.68	3.19	16.90	0.65	3.36	20.57	0.66	2.48	16.63	0.68	2.38	17.45
T (t−1)	0.60	3.89	20.04	0.39	5.45	33.19	0.61	2.69	17.55	0.48	3.31	23.27
Wilg (t−1)	0.60	4.03	20.64	0.38	5.58	34.14	0.62	2.73	17.68	0.47	3.35	23.55
P (me), Tsr	0.81	2.48	12.05	0.81	2.50	15.90	0.79	1.93	12.43	0.74	2.15	15.53
P (me), Wilgsr	0.77	3.15	15.58	0.83	2.44	16.05	0.68	2.33	15.04	0.82	1.89	14.68
P (me), Wilgsr, Tsr	0.85	2.45	12.03	0.92	2.07	12.22	0.82	1.96	12.62	0.94	1.55	11.28
MLP
P (t = 1)	0.41	4.94	28.71	0.55	4.30	24.98	0.39	3.02	20.69	0.34	3.51	27.94
P (t = 2)	0.53	4.57	26.63	0.52	4.37	24.59	0.42	3.16	22.94	0.52	3.13	22.23
P (t = 3)	0.60	3.94	23.18	0.61	3.95	22.90	0.50	2.99	22.14	0.58	2.86	20.44
P (t = 4)	0.67	3.46	20.03	0.71	3.64	20.08	0.58	2.39	16.71	0.59	2.86	21.16
P (t = 5)	0.69	3.46	19.83	0.71	3.20	17.93	0.61	2.63	17.72	0.65	2.81	22.20
P (t = 6)	0.76	2.84	16.76	0.72	3.00	17.00	0.66	2.16	15.53	0.63	2.79	20.53
P (t = 7)	0.69	3.20	19.03	0.77	2.92	16.50	0.62	2.66	20.34	0.71	2.19	14.11
P (me)	0.75	2.99	17.33	0.76	2.85	16.39	0.68	2.40	18.02	0.69	2.37	18.10
T (t−1)	0.14	5.38	31.86	0.18	5.38	28.98	0.17	3.33	23.06	0.20	3.40	24.29
Wilg (t−1)	0.21	5.20	30.09	0.29	5.59	33.47	0.28	3.38	23.26	0.17	4.17	30.34
P (me), Tsr	0.81	2.54	16.90	0.80	2.71	15.50	0.65	2.56	18.47	0.73	2.37	17.24
P (me), Wilgsr	0.76	2.89	17.17	0.83	2.33	13.18	0.65	2.24	16.33	0.65	2.31	18.07
P (me), Wilgsr, Tsr	0.82	2.50	16.18	0.84	2.15	15.50	0.67	2.18	15.72	0.68	2.20	16.00
SVM
P (t = 1)	0.43	4.57	23.43	0.31	4.75	26.12	0.33	3.11	21.38	0.13	3.08	21.53
P (t = 2)	0.51	4.22	21.62	0.54	4.01	22.08	0.39	2.99	20.87	0.39	2.77	19.65
P (t = 3)	0.56	3.89	20.18	0.68	3.45	19.52	0.45	2.87	20.50	0.52	2.57	18.63
P (t = 4)	0.62	3.62	19.34	0.76	2.92	17.24	0.49	2.78	20.29	0.61	2.37	17.83
P (t = 5)	0.67	3.32	18.01	0.74	3.05	18.02	0.56	2.62	19.34	0.56	2.42	18.21
P (t = 6)	0.71	3.13	17.15	0.73	2.96	17.63	0.61	2.51	18.55	0.59	2.32	17.81
P (t = 7)	0.73	2.98	16.35	0.72	2.99	17.53	0.65	2.41	17.68	0.61	2.29	17.16
P (me)	0.74	2.92	16.35	0.73	2.95	17.05	0.68	2.32	17.15	0.62	2.26	16.56
T (t−1)	0.20	5.14	28.43	0.18	5.74	33.92	0.19	3.26	23.50	0.13	3.28	24.62
Wilg (t−1)	0.19	5.30	30.56	0.18	5.38	33.14	0.07	3.42	22.46	0.02	3.09	21.60
P (me), Tsr	0.78	2.86	15.15	0.79	2.56	14.26	0.67	2.34	17.61	0.62	2.33	16.70
P (me), Wilgsr	0.76	2.86	15.79	0.76	2.86	16.11	0.72	2.21	16.47	0.67	2.11	15.31
P (me), Wilgsr, Tsr	0.83	2.42	13.74	0.84	2.39	13.47	0.67	2.35	17.46	0.64	2.16	15.85