Table 4.
Comparison of predictive capabilities for BT, RF models.
Parameter | First Layer | Second Layer | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Learning | Testing | Learning | Testing | |||||||||
R | MAE | MAPE | R | MAE | MAPE | R | MAE | MAPE | R | MAE | MAPE | |
BT | ||||||||||||
P (t = 1) | 0.49 | 4.63 | 27.64 | 0.33 | 5.13 | 27.93 | 0.47 | 2.99 | 21.66 | 0.27 | 3.63 | 23.33 |
P (t = 2) | 0.59 | 4.09 | 24.43 | 0.52 | 4.43 | 24.15 | 0.55 | 2.83 | 20.54 | 0.48 | 3.32 | 21.50 |
P (t = 3) | 0.62 | 3.92 | 22.85 | 0.55 | 3.93 | 21.91 | 0.56 | 2.71 | 19.17 | 0.50 | 2.83 | 18.62 |
P (t = 4) | 0.69 | 3.39 | 19.49 | 0.65 | 3.44 | 18.71 | 0.63 | 2.51 | 18.06 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 16.44 |
P (t = 5) | 0.74 | 3.08 | 17.58 | 0.71 | 3.00 | 16.31 | 0.64 | 2.48 | 17.85 | 0.61 | 2.56 | 17.17 |
P (t = 6) | 0.74 | 3.10 | 17.83 | 0.78 | 2.71 | 15.34 | 0.66 | 2.40 | 17.05 | 0.72 | 2.25 | 15.26 |
P (t = 7) | 0.78 | 2.82 | 16.21 | 0.79 | 2.66 | 15.11 | 0.67 | 2.30 | 16.34 | 0.75 | 2.14 | 14.56 |
P (me) | 0.78 | 2.85 | 16.40 | 0.80 | 2.67 | 14.50 | 0.69 | 2.24 | 15.82 | 0.78 | 2.01 | 13.94 |
T (t−1) | 0.22 | 5.29 | 30.70 | 0.26 | 5.09 | 28.43 | 0.42 | 3.05 | 21.19 | 0.31 | 3.02 | 19.87 |
Wilg (t−1) | 0.25 | 5.31 | 30.10 | 0.12 | 5.32 | 29.43 | 0.29 | 3.31 | 22.39 | 0.10 | 3.48 | 22.29 |
P (me), Tsr | 0.81 | 2.66 | 15.51 | 0.80 | 2.80 | 15.68 | 0.71 | 2.20 | 15.66 | 0.72 | 2.33 | 15.61 |
P (me), Wilgsr | 0.79 | 2.79 | 16.07 | 0.80 | 2.81 | 15.42 | 0.71 | 2.23 | 15.99 | 0.70 | 2.25 | 14.78 |
P (me), Wilgsr, Tsr | 0.81 | 2.68 | 15.36 | 0.81 | 2.72 | 14.71 | 0.73 | 2.15 | 15.09 | 0.69 | 2.20 | 14.00 |
RF | ||||||||||||
P (t = 1) | 0.50 | 4.66 | 27.72 | 0.35 | 4.89 | 27.13 | 0.40 | 3.16 | 22.38 | 0.12 | 3.62 | 24.96 |
P (t = 2) | 0.61 | 4.11 | 24.25 | 0.41 | 4.72 | 26.23 | 0.57 | 2.77 | 19.43 | 0.12 | 3.77 | 26.27 |
P (t = 3) | 0.63 | 3.76 | 21.95 | 0.59 | 3.97 | 22.70 | 0.58 | 2.58 | 18.45 | 0.38 | 3.02 | 21.12 |
P (t = 4) | 0.69 | 3.37 | 19.94 | 0.70 | 3.39 | 19.60 | 0.62 | 2.47 | 17.79 | 0.57 | 2.61 | 18.43 |
P (t = 5) | 0.75 | 2.92 | 17.38 | 0.72 | 3.17 | 18.15 | 0.67 | 2.28 | 16.66 | 0.63 | 2.53 | 17.95 |
P (t = 6) | 0.77 | 2.83 | 17.05 | 0.75 | 2.98 | 16.68 | 0.71 | 2.15 | 15.94 | 0.59 | 2.65 | 18.51 |
P (t = 7) | 0.81 | 2.54 | 15.28 | 0.77 | 2.86 | 16.34 | 0.74 | 1.98 | 14.61 | 0.60 | 2.64 | 18.23 |
P (me) | 0.83 | 2.34 | 14.03 | 0.78 | 2.79 | 14.94 | 0.74 | 2.04 | 14.59 | 0.61 | 2.48 | 17.07 |
T (t−1) | 0.37 | 4.83 | 28.59 | 0.06 | 5.38 | 30.42 | 0.36 | 3.03 | 21.31 | 0.20 | 3.38 | 23.06 |
Wilg (t−1) | 0.32 | 5.13 | 29.99 | 0.18 | 5.49 | 30.50 | 0.32 | 3.27 | 22.44 | 0.06 | 3.55 | 24.20 |
P (me), Tsr | 0.87 | 2.72 | 16.34 | 0.75 | 3.30 | 18.66 | 0.82 | 2.06 | 14.78 | 0.59 | 2.67 | 19.14 |
P (me), Wilgsr | 0.85 | 2.96 | 17.66 | 0.80 | 3.30 | 18.89 | 0.80 | 2.05 | 14.92 | 0.58 | 2.70 | 19.50 |
P (me), Wilgsr, Tsr | 0.86 | 2.93 | 17.40 | 0.83 | 2.96 | 17.80 | 0.78 | 2.01 | 14.50 | 0.68 | 2.20 | 15.20 |