Table 2.
Mortality Outcomes Under Intervention Scenarios for U.S. Adults With MDEs, 2020–2100
| Mental health service utilizationa | Integrated cessation
treatmentb (% of MPC) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any Tx | Pharm Tx | 100%b increase | 150% increase | 200% increase | MPCc | |
| Smoking-attributable deaths avoided, 2020–2100 | ||||||
| Women | ||||||
| No change from baseline | 16,507 (4.1) | 63,885 (16.0) | 99,527 (25.0) | 135,269 (34.0) | 164,653 (41.3) | 398,333 |
| Increase by 10% | 18,142 (4.3) | 70,021 (16.6) | 108,841 (25.8) | 147,559 (35.0) | 179,212 (42.5) | 422,092 |
| Increase by 20% | 19,774 (4.5) | 76,114 (17.1) | 118,044 (26.6) | 159,638 (36.0) | 193,449 (43.6) | 443,816 |
| 100% | 24,205 (4.9) | 92,331 (18.8) | 142,143 (28.9) | 190,703 (38.8) | 229,480 (46.7) | 491,307 |
| Men | ||||||
| No change from baseline | 15,731 (3.6) | 61,485 (14.1) | 96,548 (22.1) | 132,323 (30.3) | 162,243 (37.1) | 436,981 |
| Increase by 10% | 17,294 (3.7) | 67,466 (14.5) | 105,772 (22.7) | 144,705 (31.1) | 177,134 (38.1) | 465,389 |
| Increase by 20% | 18,855 (3.8) | 73,418 (14.9) | 114,920 (23.4) | 156,940 (31.9) | 191,795 (39.0) | 491,682 |
| 100% | 28,926 (4.7) | 111,075 (18.0) | 171,837 (27.8) | 231,632 (37.5) | 279,756 (45.2) | 618,307 |
| Life-years gained, 2020–2100 | ||||||
| Women | ||||||
| No change from baseline | 67,003 (4.0) | 260,237 (15.5) | 406,602 (24.2) | 554,329 (33.0) | 676,572 (40.2) | 1,682,312 |
| Increase by 10% | 73,644 (4.1) | 285,322 (16.0) | 444,873 (24.9) | 605,120 (33.9) | 737,048 (41.2) | 1,787,406 |
| Increase by 20% | 80,275 (4.3) | 310,243 (16.5) | 482,727 (25.6) | 655,112 (34.8) | 796,301 (42.3) | 1,884,292 |
| 100% | 98,137 (4.7) | 376,097 (18) | 581,174 (27.7) | 782,857 (37.4) | 945,345 (45.1) | 2,094,456 |
| Men | ||||||
| No change from baseline | 71,412 (3.5) | 280,026 (13.7) | 440,882 (21.5) | 605,968 (29.6) | 744,847 (36.4) | 2,047,083 |
| Increase by 10% | 78,509 (3.6) | 307,338 (14.1) | 483,187 (22.1) | 663,040 (30.3) | 813,788 (37.2) | 2,186,660 |
| Increase by 20% | 85,601 (3.7) | 334,533 (14.4) | 525,183 (22.7) | 719,501 (31.1) | 881,772 (38.1) | 2,316,973 |
| 100% | 132,462 (4.5) | 511,034 (17.2) | 793,606 (26.7) | 1,074,186 (36.1) | 1,302,089 (43.8) | 2,973,172 |
Notes: Estimates are for the entire population directly or indirectly affected by the intervention, including people with current MDE, former MDE, and recall error. Breakdown by MDE subgroup can be found in Appendix Tables 4–6.
Baseline levels based on proportion of smokers with current MDEs who report seeing a health professional for their depression in the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health.
Increased quitting under hypothetical cessation treatment interventions; Any Tx = any type of cessation treatment including behavioral, pharmacological, or a combination (13.7% increase); Pharm Tx = pharmacological cessation treatment (58.8% increase).10
MPC = maximum potential cessation scenario which assumes 100% of smokers using mental health services quit starting in 2020.