Table 1.
Binary outcome prediction performance on different models using full sample data (positive label percentage: 23% for mortality, 10% for intubation, 17% for ICU transfer)
| Time window | Event | Model type | AUROC | AUPRC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 h | Mortality | LG | 0.85 (0.02) | 0.65 (0.01) |
| RF | 0.82 (0.02) | 0.63 (0.01) | ||
| SVM | 0.79 (0.02) | 0.61 (0.02) | ||
| XGB | 0.83 (0.02) | 0.65 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.91 (0.01) | 0.82 (0.01) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.92 (0.01) | 0.82 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.91 (0.02) | 0.83 (0.01) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.92∗ (0.01) | 0.84∗ (0.02) | ||
| Intubation | LG | 0.82 (0.01) | 0.47 (0.02) | |
| RF | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.46 (0.01) | ||
| SVM | 0.76 (0.02) | 0.42 (0.01) | ||
| XGB | 0.78 (0.02) | 0.46 (0.01) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.83 (0.02) | 0.49 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.85 (0.02) | 0.48 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.91∗ (0.02) | 0.56∗ (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.91 (0.02) | 0.56 (0.03) | ||
| ICU transfer | LG | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.52 (0.01) | |
| RF | 0.82 (0.02) | 0.55 (0.01) | ||
| SVM | 0.79 (0.01) | 0.52 (0.01) | ||
| XGB | 0.78 (0.02) | 0.55 (0.01) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.83 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.81 (0.02) | 0.57 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.86∗ (0.01) | 0.62∗ (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.85 (0.01) | 0.59 (0.02) | ||
| 48 h | Mortality | LG | 0.85 (0.01) | 0.64 (0.02) |
| RF | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.61 (0.02) | ||
| SVM | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.63 (0.01) | ||
| XGB | 0.88 (0.01) | 0.69 (0.01) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.90 (0.02) | 0.82 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.92 (0.01) | 0.83 (0.01) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.92 (0.02) | 0.82 (0.01) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.93∗ (0.01) | 0.84∗ (0.01) | ||
| Intubation | LG | 0.79 (0.01) | 0.45 (0.02) | |
| RF | 0.77 (0.02) | 0.44 (0.01) | ||
| SVM | 0.73 (0.01) | 0.39 (0.01) | ||
| XGB | 0.82 (0.01) | 0.49 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.69 (0.04) | 0.40 (0.03) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.78 (0.03) | 0.39 (0.03) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.86 (0.03) | 0.54 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.93∗ (0.01) | 0.51∗ (0.03) | ||
| ICU transfer | LG | 0.79 (0.02) | 0.50 (0.01) | |
| RF | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.54 (0.01) | ||
| SVM | 0.77 (0.02) | 0.49 (0.02) | ||
| XGB | 0.81 (0.01) | 0.57 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CEL | 0.80 (0.01) | 0.54 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CEL | 0.81 (0.02) | 0.52 (0.02) | ||
| RNN + CL | 0.83 (0.02) | 0.60 (0.02) | ||
| RETAIN + CL | 0.83∗ (0.01) | 0.59∗ (0.02) |
All predictions are calculated from 10-fold cross-validation, for which we record the mean value and standard deviation as confident intervals across folds. Asterisks (∗) indicate best model performance per event.