Table 4.
Multivariate analysis of risk factors for bleeding after endoscopic sphincterotomy
| Multivariate analysis | Bleeding n = 21 | No bleeding n = 503 | Univariate analysis, p value | Multivariate analysis, p value | Odds ratio | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age > 80 years | 16 (76.0%) | 205 (40.8%) | 0.002 | 0.024 | 3.36 | 1.17–9.65 |
| Underlying disease | ||||||
| Cardiovascular disease | 1 (5.0%) | 37 (7.4%) | 0.99 | |||
| Stroke | 1 (5.0%) | 22 (4.4%) | 0.99 | |||
| Liver cirrhosis | 0 | 9 (1.8%) | 0.99 | |||
| DOAC use | 6 (29.0%) | 36 (7.2%) | 0.004 | 0.011 | 3.95 | 1.37–11.4 |
| Combination of DOAC and antiplatelet drugs | 2 (10.0%) | 10 (2.0%) | 0.079 | |||
| Platelet count < 100,000/µl | 5 (24.0%) | 17 (3.4%) | 0.001 | 0.001 | 6.74 | 2.1–21.6 |
| ERCP findings | ||||||
| Periampullary diverticulum | 7 (33.0%) | 140 (27.8%) | 0.622 | |||
| Precut | 1 (5.0%) | 4 (0.8%) | 0.186 | |||
| Lithotripsy | 14 (67.0%) | 364 (72.4%) | 0.62 | |||
| EPLBD | 3 (14.0%) | 27 (5.4%) | 0.112 | |||
| SEMS | 3 (14.0%) | 49 (9.7%) | 0.453 | |||
Area under the ROC curve: 0.748; Multicollinearity: < 5
CI Confidence interval, DOAC direct oral anticoagulant, EPLBD endoscopic papillary large balloon dilation, ENBD endoscopic naso-biliary drainage, SEMS self-expandable metallic stent, ROC receiver-operating characteristic