Table 2.
The distributed lag effects of extreme PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2, O3 concentrations on varicella at various lag days.
| Lag | PM10 | PM2.5 | NO2 | SO2 | O3 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.5th (220 μg/m3) | 2.5th (29 μg/m3) | 97.5th (135 μg/m3) | 2.5th (10 μg/m3) | 97.5th (75 μg/m3) | 2.5th (10 μg/m3) | 97.5th (65 μg/m3) | 2.5th (4 μg/m3) | 97.5th (187 μg/m3) | 2.5th (40 μg/m3) | |
| 1 | 0.998 (0.953, 1.045) | 1.001 (0.988, 1.013) | 1.011 (0.962, 1.062) | 0.997 (0.985, 1.010) | 1.000 (0.963, 1.039) | 1.000 (0.968, 1.033) | 0.996 (0.987, 1.005) | 1.042 (0.942, 1.152) | 1.006 (0.992, 1.021) | 0.972 (0.910, 1.038) |
| 2 | 1.002 (0.964, 1.043) | 0.999 (0.989, 1.010) | 1.015 (0.974, 1.058) | 0.996 (0.986, 1.007) | 1.001 (0.970, 1.032) | 1.000 (0.973, 1.026) | 0.997 (0.989, 1.004) | 1.039 (0.953, 1.132) | 1.005 (0.993, 1.017) | 0.978 (0.926, 1.032) |
| 3 | 1.007 (0.973, 1.041) | 0.998 (0.989, 1.007) | 1.020 (0.985, 1.056) | 0.995 (0.987, 1.004) | 1.001 (0.976, 1.026) | 0.999 (0.978, 1.021) | 0.997 (0.990, 1.003) | 1.036 (0.962, 1.115) | 1.004 (0.994, 1.014) | 0.983 (0.940, 1.028) |
| 4 | 1.010 (0.981, 1.041) | 0.997 (0.989, 1.005) | 1.023 (0.992, 1.054) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.002) | 1.000(0.980, 1.021) | 1.000 (0.982, 1.017) | 0.997 (0.991, 1.003) | 1.033 (0.968, 1.103) | 1.003 (0.994, 1.011) | 0.988 (0.951, 1.026) |
| 5 | 1.013 (0.985, 1.041) | 0.997 (0.989, 1.004) | 1.025 (0.997, 1.053) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.001) | 1.000 (0.983, 1.018) | 1.000 (0.985, 1.015) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.031 (0.970, 1.096) | 1.002 (0.994, 1.009) | 0.993 (0.959, 1.028) |
| 6 | 1.015 (0.987, 1.042) | 0.996 (0.989, 1.003) | 1.026 (1.000, 1.053) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.000) | 0.999 (0.983, 1.016) | 1.001 (0.987, 1.015) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.030 (0.971, 1.093) | 1.001 (0.993, 1.008) | 0.997 (0.964, 1.031) |
| 7 | 1.015 (0.988, 1.043) | 0.996 (0.988, 1.003) | 1.026 (1.000, 1.053) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.000) | 0.998 (0.983, 1.014) | 1.001 (0.988, 1.015) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.030 (0.970, 1.093) | 1.000 (0.992, 1.007) | 1.001 (0.968, 1.036) |
| 8 | 1.015 (0.988, 1.044) | 0.996 (0.988, 1.003) | 1.026 (0.999, 1.053) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.000) | 0.997 (0.981, 1.013) | 1.003 (0.989, 1.016) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.030 (0.970, 1.093) | 0.999 (0.991, 1.007) | 1.005 (0.971, 1.04) |
| 9 | 1.014 (0.987, 1.043) | 0.996 (0.989, 1.004) | 1.024 (0.997, 1.051) | 0.994 (0.988, 1.001) | 0.996 (0.980, 1.012) | 1.004 (0.990, 1.018) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.030 (0.970, 1.094) | 0.998 (0.990, 1.006) | 1.008 (0.974, 1.045) |
| 10 | 1.013 (0.985, 1.042) | 0.996 (0.989, 1.004) | 1.022 (0.995, 1.049) | 0.995 (0.988, 1.001) | 0.994 (0.978, 1.010) | 1.005 (0.991, 1.019) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.031 (0.971, 1.095) | 0.997 (0.989, 1.005) | 1.012 (0.976, 1.048) |
| 11 | 1.011 (0.983, 1.039) | 0.997 (0.990, 1.005) | 1.019 (0.992, 1.046) | 0.995 (0.989, 1.002) | 0.992 (0.976, 1.009) | 1.007 (0.993, 1.021) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.003) | 1.033 (0.972, 1.096) | 0.997 (0.989, 1.005) | 1.015 (0.980, 1.051) |
| 12 | 1.008 (0.981, 1.036) | 0.998 (0.990, 1.005) | 1.015 (0.989, 1.042) | 0.996 (0.990, 1.003) | 0.990 (0.974, 1.006) | 1.009 (0.995, 1.023) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.002) | 1.034 (0.975, 1.097) | 0.996 (0.988, 1.004) | 1.017 (0.983, 1.053) |
| 13 | 1.005 (0.978, 1.032) | 0.999 (0.991, 1.006) | 1.011 (0.985, 1.037) | 0.997 (0.991, 1.004) | 0.988 (0.972, 1.004) | 1.010 (0.997, 1.024) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.002) | 1.037 (0.978, 1.098) | 0.996 (0.988, 1.003) | 1.020 (0.986, 1.055) |
| 14 | 1.001 (0.974, 1.028) | 1.000 (0.993, 1.007) | 1.006 (0.981, 1.031) | 0.999 (0.992, 1.005) | 0.986 (0.970, 1.001) | 1.012 (0.999, 1.026) | 0.997 (0.992, 1.002) | 1.039 (0.982, 1.099) | 0.995 (0.988, 1.002) | 1.022 (0.989, 1.057) |
| 15 | 0.997 (0.971, 1.023) | 1.001 (0.994, 1.008) | 1.001 (0.976, 1.026) | 1.000 (0.994, 1.006) | 0.983 (0.968,0.999) | 1.015 (1.001, 1.028) | 0.996 (0.991, 1.001) | 1.042 (0.986, 1.101) | 0.995 (0.987, 1.002) | 1.024 (0.991, 1.059) |
| 16 | 0.992 (0.966, 1.018) | 1.002 (0.995, 1.009) | 0.995 (0.970, 1.020) | 1.001 (0.995, 1.008) | 0.981 (0.965,0.997) | 1.017 (1.003, 1.031) | 0.996 (0.991, 1.001) | 1.045(0.990, 1.103) | 0.994 (0.987, 1.002) | 1.026 (0.993, 1.061) |
| 17 | 0.987 (0.961, 1.014) | 1.004 (0.996, 1.011) | 0.989 (0.964, 1.015) | 1.003 (0.996, 1.009) | 0.978 (0.962,0.995) | 1.019 (1.004, 1.034) | 0.996 (0.991, 1.001) | 1.048(0.992, 1.108) | 0.994 (0.986, 1.002) | 1.028 (0.993, 1.065) |
| 18 | 0.982 (0.955, 1.010) | 1.005 (0.997, 1.013) | 0.983 (0.956, 1.010) | 1.004 (0.998, 1.011) | 0.975 (0.957,0.994) | 1.022 (1.005, 1.038) | 0.995 (0.990, 1.001) | 1.052 (0.994, 1.113) | 0.993 (0.985, 1.002) | 1.030 (0.992, 1.071) |
| 19 | 0.976 (0.948, 1.006) | 1.007 (0.998, 1.015) | 0.976 (0.947, 1.006) | 1.006 (0.999, 1.014) | 0.973 (0.953,0.993) | 1.024 (1.006, 1.042) | 0.995 (0.990, 1.001) | 1.056 (0.994, 1.121) | 0.993 (0.983, 1.002) | 1.032 (0.989, 1.077) |
| 20 | 0.971 (0.940, 1.003) | 1.008 (0.999, 1.017) | 0.970 (0.938, 1.002) | 1.008 (0.999, 1.016) | 0.970 (0.948,0.993) | 1.026 (1.006, 1.047) | 0.995 (0.989, 1.001) | 1.060 (0.993, 1.131) | 0.993 (0.982, 1.003) | 1.034 (0.986, 1.084) |
PM10, particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm; PM2.5, particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm; NO2, nitrogen dioxide; SO2, sulfur dioxide; O3, maximum 8-h moving average ozone concentration.