Table 1. Regret percentiles by metric and strategy for a set of non-dominated and constant-caution strategies.
| Strategy | Strategy Parameters | Deaths per 100 k | NPI Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| C-24-1 | constant | 0 | 252 |
| V-24-2 | V* = 60%; kc = 15 | 1 | 248 |
| T-24-6 | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 1 | 249 |
| V-24-1 | V* = 60%; kc = 10 | 1 | 248 |
| T-24-5 | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 07 − 04 | 1 | 248 |
| V-24-5 | V* = 50%; kc = 10 | 2 | 244 |
| V-24-6* | V* = 50%; kc = 15 | 3 | 240 |
| T-24-4* | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 03 − 10 | 4 | 229 |
| C-12-1 | constant | 4 | 247 |
| T-24-3* | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 5 | 225 |
| V-12-2 | V* = 60%; kc = 15 | 5 | 242 |
| T-12-6* | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 5 | 238 |
| V-12-1 | V* = 60%; kc = 10 | 5 | 243 |
| V-24-3* | V* = 40%; kc = 10 | 6 | 238 |
| T-12-5* | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 07 − 04 | 6 | 240 |
| V-12-5* | V* = 50%; kc = 10 | 8 | 238 |
| V-12-6* | V* = 50%; kc = 15 | 8 | 232 |
| T-24-2* | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 07 − 04 | 9 | 213 |
| V-24-4* | V* = 40%; kc = 15 | 10 | 222 |
| T-12-4* | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 03 − 10 | 11 | 222 |
| T-12-3* | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 12 | 217 |
| C-6-1 | constant—(baseline strategy) | 12 | 238 |
| T-6-6 | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 14 | 223 |
| V-6-2 | V* = 60%; kc = 15 | 14 | 231 |
| V-6-1 | V* = 60%; kc = 10 | 15 | 230 |
| T-6-5 | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 07 − 04 | 16 | 224 |
| V-6-5 | V* = 50%; kc = 10 | 19 | 218 |
| V-6-6 | V* = 50%; kc = 15 | 19 | 213 |
| T-6-3 | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 09 − 26 | 22 | 204 |
| T-6-4 | α = 50%; Tα = 2021 − 03 − 10 | 24 | 211 |
| V-6-3 | V* = 40%; kc = 10 | 27 | 195 |
| C-3-1 | constant | 28 | 209 |
| T-6-2 | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 07 − 04 | 33 | 168 |
| V-6-4 | V* = 40%; kc = 15 | 33 | 177 |
| C-1.5-1 | constant | 50 | 161 |
| T-6-1 | α = 10%; Tα = 2021 − 03 − 10 | 71 | 112 |
| C-0.5-1 | constant | 93 | 73 |
The table presents a subset of the strategies evaluated in this paper, and the full list of strategies is available in the S1 Appendix. This table presents only strategies that use a constant level of caution, or dominate the baseline strategy C-6-1, allowing for a margin of 1%. Strategies are coded as follows. The first letter in the strategy code stands for the strategy type (C for constant caution, T for time-based, and V for vaccine-based). The subsequent number represents the baseline level of caution xb, and the third number is a sequential number making the strategy code unique. The parameters column describes policy levers that characterize each strategy, as described in the Methods section. The final three columns present the 75th regret percentile of three metrics of interest.