Table 1.
Prior and posterior distributions of all calibrated parameters.
| Parameter | Prior distribution | Posterior centiles |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5th | 50th | 97.5th | ||
| Incubation period (days) | Truncated normal Mean 5.5, standard deviation 0.97. Truncated range [1, infinity) | 3.67 | 5.51 | 7.33 |
| Duration actively infectious for non-hospitalised (days) | Truncated normal Mean 6.5, standard deviation 0.77. Truncated range [4, infinity) | 5.23 | 6.55 | 8.02 |
| Contact rate | Uniform (0.015, 0.04) | 0.025 | 0.031 | 0.037 |
| Infectious seed | Uniform (75, 225) | 81 | 150 | 219 |
| Case detection rate at testing rate of 1 test per 10, 000 per day (proportion) | Uniform (0.005, 0.02) | 0.0064 | 0.0151 | 0.0196 |
| Micro-distancing upper asymptote | Uniform (0.05, 0.5) | 0.070 | 0.228 | 0.454 |
| Infection fatality rate adjuster | Uniform (0.1, 1.0) | 0.138 | 0.434 | 0.897 |
| Symptomatic proportion adjuster | Uniform (0.5, 1.5) | 0.546 | 1.06 | 1.46 |
| Proportion admitted to ICU among those hospitalised | Uniform (0.05, 0.15) | 0.056 | 0.103 | 0.145 |
| Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic persons (per unit time with active disease) | Uniform (0.15, 0.6) | 0.178 | 0.407 | 0.585 |
| Increased transmissibility of VoC strains | Uniform (1, 1.7) | 1.15 | 1.50 | 1.68 |
| Start time of VoC emergence | Uniform (Oct 26, 2020, Feb 03, 2021) | Nov 01, 2020 | Dec, 09, 2020 | Jan 25, 2021 |