Table 3.
Synthesis of probability ratios (PR) and changes in intensity from the attribution analysis of January–June mean temperature in the Siberian region, comparing the 2020 event with 1900 climate. The weighted average uncertainty range corresponds to the magenta bar and the unweighted average uncertainty range to the white box, of the synthesis bar in Fig. 4
| Dataset | Probability ratio PR [−] | Change in intensity [°C] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best estimate | Uncertainty: weighted average | Uncertainty: unweighted average | Best estimate | Uncertainty: weighted average | Uncertainty: unweighted average | |
| ERA5 | 7.73E+07 | >2.3E+04 | >5.9E+03 | 4.08 | (2.4, 5.6) | (2.2, 5.8) |
| GISS 250-km anomalies | 5.11E+04 | >2.5E+03 | >130 | 2.84 | (2.1, 3.5) | (1.7, 3.9) |
| Observations average | 2.52E+06 | >1.5E+03 | >1.5E+03 | 3.46 | (2.0, 4.9) | (2.0, 4.9) |
| Model average | 1.63E+04 | >18 | >18 | 2.56 | (1.2, 3.9) | (1.2, 3.9) |
| Synthesis | 8.87E+04 | >500 | >1.10E+03 | 2.98 | (2.0, 3.9) | (2.0, 4.0) |