Table.
Vaccine effectiveness assumptions for three two-dose vaccines licensed for use in England
| Alpha | Delta (central) | Delta (optimistic) | Delta (pessimistic) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effectiveness against death | ||||
| AZ (one dose)23, 24 | 80% | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| AZ (two doses)23, 24, 25 | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| PF (one dose)23, 24 | 85% | 85% | 85% | 80% |
| PF (two doses)23, 24 | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% |
| Effectiveness against severe disease | ||||
| AZ (one dose)26, 27 | 80% | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| AZ (two doses)26, 27, 28* | 90% | 90% | 90% | 85% |
| PF (one dose)29 | 85% | 85% | 85% | 80% |
| PF (two doses)28, 30* | 95% | 95% | 95% | 90% |
| Effectiveness against mild disease or infection† | ||||
| AZ (one dose)12, 28, 31 | 50% | 33% | 45% | 20% |
| AZ (two doses)12, 13, 31, 32 | 74% | 58% | 70% | 45% |
| PF (one dose)12, 13, 27, 30 | 50% | 33% | 45% | 20% |
| PF (two doses)12, 13, 30, 33 | 93% | 85% | 90% | 78% |
| Effectiveness against infectiousness if infected | ||||
| All vaccines (one and two doses)23 | 45% | 40% | 45% | 35% |
We assumed that MD had the same vaccine effectiveness as PF for first and second doses. AZ=Oxford–AstraZeneca ChadOx1 nCov-19 AZD1222. MD=Moderna mRNA-1273. PF=Pfizer–BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2.
†
Vaccine effectiveness against infection was assumed equal to vaccine effectiveness against mild disease.
*
Assumed greater than mild disease.