Fig 3.

Upper: Modeled health trajectories. When an individual is infected, they might remain asymptomatic, or become symptomatic with symptoms likely to progress. In our implementation, the likelihood of each of these transitions is dependent on the age, sex, and/or comorbidities of the infected individual. As more data becomes available, additional factors can also be included. Lower: Severe infection rates adjusted for estimated comorbidities in the PoC population using UK data as a baseline. We show the increased risk of severe infection due to the presence of comorbidities, r_c(age, sex), defined as, P^Cox(severe | age, sex) = P^UK(severe | age, sex)(1 + r_c(age, sex)). Note that although r_c(age, sex) decreases for the oldest age groups, P^UK(severe | age, sex) increases exponentially with age and therefore the older an agent is, the more likely it is for them to develop a severe infection.