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. 2021 Oct 28;12:6223. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26475-6

Fig. 1. The model calibrations and the scenarios used.

Fig. 1

a HBsAg prevalence in all ages, b HBeAg prevalence in HBsAg+ women of childbearing age, and HBV-related death rates (deaths per 100,000) from c cirrhosis and d hepatocellular carcinoma in the 110 countries modelled compared to data from the literature in the year the data were collected. Data are presented as mean values with 95% credibility intervals of n = 200 model outcomes resulting from 200 independent draws from the posterior distribution of each country. Countries modelled in the six WHO regions AFRO, EMRO, EURO, PAHO, SEARO and WPRO are given in Supplementary Fig. 1. e HepB3 and f timely HepB-BD vaccination coverage globally in selected scenarios (see Table 1). Note that all four lines co-incide in Fig. 1e. In Fig. 1f, the Status quo HepB3 & HepB-BD (baseline) line appears dashed where it co-incides with the HepB-BD disruptions 20% in 2020 line and the HepB-BD scale-up to 90% line appears dashed where it co-incides with the HepB-BD delayed & slow scale-up 2025 to 2040 line. HBeAg: hepatitis B e antigen; HBsAg: hepatitis B surface antigen; HBV: hepatitis B virus; HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma; HepB3: infant HBV vaccine series; timely HepB-BD: timely birth dose; WHO: World Health Organization.