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. 2021 Oct 28;12:6223. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26475-6

Fig. 2. The overall impact of timely HepB-BD scale-up on disease burden globally.

Fig. 2

a Incidence of new chronic carriage of HBV, b Prevalence of chronic HBsAg among five-year-olds, c HBV-related deaths and d total DALYs incurred. Shown are the means (lines) and 95% credibility intervals (shaded areas), comparing the status quo HepB3 & HepB-BD scenario (black line; grey shading) with a scenario in which timely HepB-BD is given to ≥90% of new-borns (the HepB-BD scale-up scenario; red line and shading). Results are the sum from all modelled countries of n = 200 model outcomes resulting from 200 independent draws from the posterior distribution of each country. The horizontal dashed line in Fig. 2b represents the WHO elimination threshold of 0.1% HBsAg prevalence in five-year-olds. DALY: disability adjusted life years; HBsAg: hepatitis B surface antigen; HBV: hepatitis B virus; timely HepB-BD: timely birth dose; WHO: World Health Organization.