Table 3.

Estimates of VL growth rates for pre-alpha, alpha, and delta (unvaccinated and fully vaccinated) cases, derived from ORF1ab cycle threshold data

	VL growth rate (95% CrI), log10units per day	Posterior probability estimate is less than pre-alpha	Posterior probability estimate is less than alpha	Posterior probability estimate is less than delta (unvaccinated)	Posterior probability estimate is less than delta (fully vaccinated)
Pre-alpha (n=49)	3·24 (1·78–6·14)	..	0·44	0·27	0·21
Alpha (n=39)	3·13 (1·76–5·94)	0·56	..	0·32	0·25
Delta, unvaccinated (n=16)	2·81 (1·47–5·47)	0·73	0·68	..	0·44
Delta, fully vaccinated (n=29)	2·69 (1·51–5·17)	0·79	0·75	0·56	..

VL growth rates are shown as within-sample posterior mean estimates. Remaining columns show population (group-level) posterior probabilities that the estimate on that row is less than an estimate for a different group. Posterior probabilities are derived from 20 000 posterior samples and have sampling errors of <0·01. VL=viral load. CrI=credible interval.