Table 4.
Estimates of VL decline rates for pre-alpha, alpha, and delta (unvaccinated and fully vaccinated) cases, derived from ORF1ab cycle threshold data
| VL decline rate (95% CrI), log10units per day | Posterior probability estimate is larger than pre-alpha | Posterior probability estimate is larger than alpha | Posterior probability estimate is larger than delta (unvaccinated) | Posterior probability estimate is larger than delta (fully vaccinated) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-alpha (n=49) | 0·69 (0·58–0·81) | .. | 0·07 | 0·21 | 0·01 |
| Alpha (n=39) | 0·82 (0·67–1·01) | 0·93 | .. | 0·60 | 0·16 |
| Delta, unvaccinated (n=16) | 0·79 (0·59–1·04) | 0·79 | 0·40 | .. | 0·15 |
| Delta, fully vaccinated (n=29) | 0·95 (0·76–1·18) | 0·99 | 0·84 | 0·85 | .. |
VL decline rates are shown as within-sample posterior mean estimates. Remaining columns show population (group-level) posterior probabilities that the estimate on that row is less than an estimate for a different group. Posterior probabilities are derived from 20 000 posterior samples and have sampling errors of <0·01. VL=viral load. CrI=credible interval.