. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Oct 29.

Published in final edited form as: J Biomed Inform. 2021 May 20;119:103818. doi: 10.1016/j.jbi.2021.103818

Table 3a.

7-day forecast using time-series regression baselines, SSIR-HCD, and Neural Network SIR-HCD model. The 7-day forecast period was from September 13 to September 19, 2020.

	Method	Training period	Hospitalization MSLE	Mortality MSLE	Hospitalization MAE	Mortality MAE

Baselines	Simple Exponential Smoothing	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.00914	0.00050	33.57	48.00
	Auto Regression	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.00876	0.00001	32.31	6.70
	ARIMA	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.01853	0.00030	48.94	7.06
	Double Exponential Model	Phase 1 and Phase 2	N/A	0.41438	N/A	1166.43
	YYG	Phase 1 and Phase 2	N/A	0.00005	N/A	17.04
	Vanilla SIR-HCD	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.01233	0.00033	39.29	43.91
Proposed models	SSIR-HCD with step function	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.00525	0.00008	22.89	20.86
Proposed models	SSIR-HCD with exponential function	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.01063	0.00011	36.23	25.04
	Nonlinear extension of SIR-HCD^* with neural networks	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.63089	0.03723	432.99	219.74

See Appendix for more details.