. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Oct 29.

Published in final edited form as: J Biomed Inform. 2021 May 20;119:103818. doi: 10.1016/j.jbi.2021.103818

Table 3c.

21-day forecast using time-series regression baselines, SSIR-HCD, and Neural Network SIR-HCD model. The 21-day forecast period was from September 13 to October 4, 2020.

	Method	Training period	Hospitalization MSLE	Mortality MSLE	Hospitalization MAE	Mortality MAE

Baselines	Simple Exponential Smoothing	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.02895	0.00285	54.14	119.05
	Auto Regression	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.06123	0.00003	79.30	11.06
	ARIMA	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.39133	0.00030	124.15	35.94
	Double Exponential Model	Phase 1 and Phase 2	N/A	0.00063	N/A	167.75
	YYG	Phase 1 and Phase 2	N/A	0.00008	N/A	19.03
	Vanilla SIR-HCD	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.00575	0.00039	68.32	49.53
Proposed models	SSIR-HCD with step function	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.01816	0.00009	39.70	23.20
Proposed models	SSIR-HCD with exponential function	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.05769	0.00012	67.65	26.93
	Nonlinear extension of SIR-HCD^* with neural networks	Phase 1 and Phase 2	0.88530	0.04211	470.87	219.59

See Appendix for more details.