Table 1.
Key Model Parameters and Description of the Model Scenarios
| Key Model Parameters (Full methodological details are provided in Supplemental Technical Appendix) | |
|---|---|
| Weekly Screening Rates – Undiagnosed (All Races) | 1.28% |
| Weekly Probability of Initiating ART - Diagnosed | |
| Black | 12.5% |
| Hispanic | 15.8% |
| White | 16.4% |
| Weekly Probability of Stopping ART – Treated by ART | |
| Black | 0.09% |
| Hispanic | 0.09% |
| White | 0.084% |
| Probability of Starting PrEP After a Negative HIV Test (All Races) | 68.5% |
| Weekly Probability of Stopping PrEP While Eligible (All Races) | 2.6% |
| Primary Scenarios (Increasing PrEP Coverage at Empirical ART Coverage) | |
| ART Coverage1 (Proportion of Virally Suppressed2) | 88.2% (65.0%) † |
| PrEP Coverage3 | |
| Reference | 25% † |
| Experimental | 37.5% to 75% (4 levels) |
| Total: 5 scenarios (5 levels of PrEP over 1 level of ART) | |
| Secondary Scenarios (Increasing PrEP Coverage at Counterfactual ART Coverage) | |
| ART Coverage1 (Proportion of Virally Suppressed2) | |
| Low ART | 75.1% (51.2%) |
| Empirical ART | 88.2% (65.0%) † |
| High ART | 99.5% (72.9%) |
| PrEP Coverage3 | |
| Reference | 0% * |
| Experimental | 12.5% to 75% (6 levels) |
| Total: 21 scenarios (7 levels of PrEP over 3 levels of ART Coverage) | |
†
San Francisco calibrated values
*
Changes in PrEP coverage at a given ART Coverage is compared to 0% PrEP at the same ART Coverage
1
Proportion of ART users among individuals with diagnosed HIV infection
2
Proportion of HIV-infected MSM who are virally suppressed
3
Proportion of PrEP users among PrEP eligible at any time point