Table 4.
HIV Outcomes Associated with Increasing Levels of PrEP Coverage, Stratified by the Proportion of Virally Suppressed Among the Infected. For Each ART Baseline (Low, Empirical, High) PIA and NNT Are Calculated Using the no PrEP Scenario of the Baseline
| Scenario | Low ART (51.2 % Viral Suppression) | Empirical ART (60% Viral Suppression) | High ART (72.9% Viral Suppression) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIA2 | PIA3 | NNT4 | NIA2 | PIA3 | NNT4 | NIA2 | PIA3 | NNT4 | |
| Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | Median (95% SI 1 ) | |
| PrEP Target | |||||||||
| No PrEP (reference) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12.5% | 178 (67, 294) | 12% (5%, 20%) | 36 (22, 90) | 169 (46, 282) | 16% (4%, 27%) | 45 (26, 136) | 141 (9, 252) | 23% (1%, 42%) | 64 (35, 435) |
| 25.0% (SFO Level) | 362 (264, 477) | 25% (18%, 33%) | 36 (27, 49) | 326 (217, 419) | 31% (20%, 39%) | 48 (37, 71) | 251 (154, 331) | 42% (25%, 55%) | 75 (57, 120) |
| 37.5% | 516 (425, 594) | 35% (29%, 41%) | 37 (33, 44) | 449 (370, 529) | 42% (35%, 50%) | 51 (43, 61) | 326 (250, 392) | 54% (41%, 65%) | 85 (71, 109) |
| 50.0% | 664 (580, 738) | 46% (40%, 51%) | 38 (35, 43) | 557 (490, 628) | 52% (46%, 59%) | 54 (48, 61) | 386 (321, 437) | 64% (53%, 72%) | 94 (83, 113) |
| 62.5% | 798 (729, 860) | 55% (50%, 59%) | 40 (37, 43) | 656 (596, 712) | 62% (56%, 67%) | 57 (53, 62) | 425 (381, 469) | 70% (63%, 78%) | 106 (96, 117) |
| 75.0% | 892 (834, 953) | 61% (57%, 66%) | 41 (38, 43) | 720 (674, 765) | 68% (64%, 72%) | 60 (56, 64) | 455 (413, 488) | 75% (68%, 81%) | 113 (106, 124) |
1
Simulation Interval.
2
Number of infections averted over the 10-year intervention relative to the reference scenario.
3
Percent of infections averted over the 10-year intervention relative to the reference scenario.
4
Number of additional person-years needed to treat by PrEP to avert one infection over the 10-year intervention relative to the reference scenario.