Table 2:
Total cases and hospitalizations by scenarioa
|
Community Risk
(Incidence: Cases per 100,000) |
Impact of School
Mitigations |
Impact of
Contact Tracing |
Net Effectiveness of School Mitigations |
Net Effectiveness of Contact Tracing |
Combined Effectiveness of Mitigation Strategies + Contact Tracing |
Total Cases (Day 0 - Day 180) |
Total Hospitalizations (Day 0 - Day 180) |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % of pop. |
# | % of pop. |
||||||
| Low Community Risk (Incidence: 9 per 100,000) | Base Case (no interventions) | 534 | 90.3% | 3.0 | 0.5% | ||||
| Low Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 13.6% | 12.8% | 26.4% | 448 | 75.6% | 2.5 | 0.4% | |
| S2 | 13.6% | 32.6% | 46.2% | 264 | 44.6% | 1.5 | 0.2% | ||
| S3 | 13.6% | 45.6% | 59.2% | 24 | 4.0% | 0.1 | 0.0% | ||
| High Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 36.0% | 12.8% | 48.8% | 194 | 32.8% | 1.1 | 0.2% | |
| S2 | 36.0% | 32.6% | 68.6% | 6 | 0.9% | 0.0 | 0.0% | ||
| S3 | 36.0% | 45.6% | 81.6% | 2 | 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.0% | ||
| Moderate Community Risk (Incidence: 49 per 100,000) | Base Case (no interventions) | 535 | 90.4% | 3.0 | 0.5% | ||||
| Low Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 13.6% | 12.8% | 26.4% | 450 | 76.1% | 2.5 | 0.4% | |
| S2 | 13.6% | 32.6% | 46.2% | 288 | 48.7% | 1.6 | 0.3% | ||
| S3 | 13.6% | 45.6% | 59.2% | 83 | 14.0% | 0.5 | 0.1% | ||
| High Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 36.0% | 12.8% | 48.8% | 249 | 42.0% | 1.4 | 0.2% | |
| S2 | 36.0% | 32.6% | 68.6% | 28 | 4.7% | 0.2 | 0.0% | ||
| S3 | 36.0% | 45.6% | 81.6% | 13 | 2.2% | 0.1 | 0.0% | ||
| Substantial Community Risk (Incidence: 99 per 100,000) | Base Case (no interventions) | 536 | 90.6% | 3.0 | 0.5% | ||||
| Low Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 13.6% | 12.8% | 26.4% | 454 | 76.6% | 2.5 | 0.4% | |
| S2 | 13.6% | 32.6% | 46.2% | 301 | 50.8% | 1.7 | 0.3% | ||
| S3 | 13.6% | 45.6% | 59.2% | 123 | 20.8% | 0.7 | 0.1% | ||
| High Impact of Mitigations | S1 | 36.0% | 12.8% | 48.8% | 268 | 45.2% | 1.5 | 0.3% | |
| S2 | 36.0% | 32.6% | 68.6% | 53 | 8.9% | 0.3 | 0.0% | ||
| S3 | 36.0% | 45.6% | 81.6% | 26 | 4.4% | 0.1 | 0.0% | ||
Legend: Base Case = no interventions applied; Low and high impact refers to two scenarios of 4 non-pharmaceutical interventions (mitigation strategies) (mask wearing, cleaning + disinfection, hand hygiene, social distancing), combined to provide 13.6% and 36% net effectiveness, respectively (Table 2); S1, S2 and S3 refer to three contact tracing scenarios, which provide 12.8%, 32.6% and 45.6% effective reduction in transmission. For each combination of mitigation strategy scenario and contact tracing scenario, an estimate of net effectiveness is calculated by summing the two estimates (e.g., low impact mitigation strategy scenario of 13.6% + contact tracing scenario S3 of 45.6% = net effectiveness of 59.2%, see Table 2)