Table 2.
Obtaining a preferred health outcome specification for social care, healthcare and public health expenditure, backward selection (second-stage results) (created by the authors)
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| All causes | All causes | All causes | All causes | All causes | All causes | All causes | |
| 2013/2014 PB/GSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/GSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend | 2013/2014 PB/PSS/PH spend | |
| SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | SYLLR 2013/2014/2015 | |
| Outcome model | Outcome model | Outcome model | Outcome model | Outcome model | Outcome model | Outcome model | |
| Instrument PB/GSS/PH spend | Instrument PB/GSS/PH spend | Instrument PB/GSS/PH spend | Instrument PB/GSS/PH spend | Instrument PB/GSS/PH spend | |||
| Weighted | Weighted | Weighted | Weighted | Weighted | Weighted | Weighted | |
| OLS | OLS | IV second stage | IV second stage | IV second stage | IV second stage | IV second stage | |
| Full specification | Parsimonious specification | Parsimonious specification | Parsimonious_v2 | Parsimonious_v3 | Parsimonious_v4 | Parsimonious_v5 | |
| Public health expenditure per person | 0.037 (0.027) |
0.029 (0.027) |
0.017 (0.032) |
0.010 (0.039) |
0.017 (0.042) |
−0.018 (0.041) |
−0.019 (0.041) |
| CCG (PB) healthcare spend per person | −0.406*** (0.139) |
−0.492*** (0.119) |
−0.840*** (0.142) |
−0.609** (0.251) |
−0.514 (0.337) |
−0.545** (0.243) |
−0.532** (0.259) |
| Social service (GSS) spend per person | 0.044 (0.055) |
0.039 (0.053) |
−0.078 (0.102) |
−0.272** (0.124) |
−0.326* (0.182) |
−0.344** (0.134) |
−0.336** (0.152) |
| Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 | 0.219*** (0.074) |
0.156** (0.066) |
0.239*** (0.059) |
0.243*** (0.068) |
0.238*** (0.075) |
−0.504* (0.260) |
−0.505** (0.255) |
| Young adult social service need per person | 0.096 (0.166) |
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| Older adult social service need per person | 0.080 (0.073) |
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| % residents born outside the European Union | −0.038* (0.020) |
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| % population in white ethnic group | 0.172*** (0.054) |
0.227*** (0.036) |
0.289*** (0.036) |
0.309*** (0.038) |
0.309*** (0.041) |
0.321*** (0.041) |
0.319*** (0.046) |
| % population providing unpaid care | −0.455*** (0.171) |
−0.233*** (0.086) |
−0.214** (0.087) |
−0.251** (0.098) |
−0.230** (0.108) |
−0.188** (0.085) |
−0.190** (0.085) |
| % population aged 16–74 with no qualifications | −0.043 (0.101) |
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| % households without a car | −0.201*** (0.074) |
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| % households that are one pensioner households | 0.057 (0.073) |
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| % lone parent households with dependent children | 0.025 (0.065) |
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| % population aged 16–74 that are permanently sick | 0.162* (0.097) |
0.217*** (0.069) |
0.229*** (0.071) |
0.262*** (0.087) |
0.259*** (0.098) |
0.271*** (0.080) |
0.271*** (0.079) |
| % aged 16–74 that are long-term unemployed | 0.057 (0.057) |
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| % aged 16–74 in employment working agriculture | −0.013 (0.012) |
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| % aged 16–74 in managerial/professional occupations | −0.241*** (0.063) |
−0.285*** (0.044) |
−0.190*** (0.050) |
−0.162*** (0.051) |
−0.154** (0.060) |
−0.098 (0.062) |
−0.100 (0.065) |
| Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 squared | 0.130*** (0.043) |
0.130*** (0.042) |
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| Constant | 7.319*** (1.040) |
8.862*** (0.819) |
11.187*** (1.021) |
9.408*** (1.693) |
8.710*** (2.295) |
10.277*** (1.568) |
10.199*** (1.662) |
| Observations | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 | 150 |
| R-squared | 0.919 | 0.908 | |||||
| Ramsey reset F-statistic | 5.096 | 6.448 | |||||
| Probability >F | 0.002 | 0.000 | |||||
| Endogeneity test statistic | 8.934 | 15.536 | 15.510 | 23.482 | 18.528 | ||
| Endogeneity p value | 0.030 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Hansen-Sargan test statistic | 21.671 | 10.327 | 2.506 | 0.265 | 0.257 | ||
| Hansen-Sargan p value | 0.006 | 0.066 | 0.286 | 0.876 | 0.612 | ||
| Pesaran-Taylor reset statistic | 0.187 | 2.892 | 3.540 | 0.008 | 0.285 | ||
| Pesaran-Taylor p value | 0.665 | 0.089 | 0.060 | 0.927 | 0.593 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer_PB F-statistic | 8.390 | 8.966 | 13.333 | 14.352 | 15.818 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer _PB p value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer _GSS F-statistic | 4.437 | 4.875 | 6.720 | 9.063 | 11.567 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer _GSS p value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer _PH F-statistic | 28.259 | 37.927 | 56.035 | 56.146 | 59.408 | ||
| Sanderson-Windmeijer _PH p value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Robust SEs in parentheses.
***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1.
CCG, Clinical Commissioning Group; IV, instrumental variable; OLS, ordinary least squares; PB/GSS, programme budgeting/gross social service/public health; PH, public health; SYLLR, standardised years of life lost rate.