Table 4.

Results summary (created by the authors)

Type of health-related expenditure	Health outcome elasticity		Spending gap per capita between	Deaths attributable to spending gap (=annual deaths*elasticity*gap)		Deaths attributable to spending gap from time trend analysis7
	Backward selection	Forward selection	2001/2002– 2009/2010 and 2010/2011–2014/2015	Backward selection	Forward selection
							Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
	Social care expenditure	−0.336	−0.471	15.08%	23 662	33 170	n/a
(95%CI)	(−0.031 to −0.640)	(0.003 to −0.945)		(2183 to 45 071)	(−211 to 66 550)
Healthcare expenditure	−0.532	−0.693	13.64%	33 888	44 143	n/a
(95%CI)	(−0.014 to −1.050)	(−0.027 to −1.359)		(892 to 66 884)	(1720 to 86 567)
Total social care and healthcare	n/a	n/a	n/a	57 550	77 313	45 368
(95%CI)				(3075 to 111 955)	(1509 to 153 117)	(34 530 to 56 206)