| β |
Transmission rate |
day−1
|
Normal (0.0078, 0.00334) |
Gurieva et al., 2018
|
13 European ICUs |
/ |
| α’ |
Endogenous acquisition rate |
day−1
|
Normal (0.0024, 0.000663) |
Gurieva et al., 2018
|
13 European ICUs |
/ |
| γ |
Natural clearance rate |
day−1
|
Normal (0.00269, 0.000216) |
Bar-Yoseph et al., 2016
|
Mixed |
Fit longitudinal colonization data using exponential decay model |
|
c
|
Fitness cost of resistance |
/ |
Normal (0.2, 0.02) |
/ |
/ |
In absence of data for ESBL resistance, used same distribution as for MRSA |
|
fC
|
Admission fraction (colonized) |
/ |
Normal (0.275, 0.0140) |
Ebrahimi et al., 2016; Gurieva et al., 2018
|
Mixed |
Estimated as the proportion of patients arriving to 13 European ICUs with ESBL-EC carriage, divided by the estimated proportion of E. coli that are ESBL-producing in a Hungarian hospital |
|
fR
|
Admission fraction (bearing resistant strain) |
/ |
Normal (0.119, 0.0413) |
Ebrahimi et al., 2016
|
Hungarian hospital |
Proportion of fecal E. coli that were ESBL-producing from a non-outbreak setting |
|
fω
|
Admission fraction (microbiota bearing ESBL gene) |
|
Binomial(857, 0.0665)/857 |
Pilmis et al., 2018; Vidal-Navarro et al., 2010
|
2 French hospitals |
Estimated by pooling 857 samples from two studies reporting fecal carriage of ESBL-producing species other than E. coli
|
|
rS
|
Antibiotic resistance level (EC) |
/ |
median 23.1% (range 9.6–36.5%) |
Estimated |
/ |
Cumulative resistance level across simulated antibiotic consumption data and assumed antibiograms |
|
rR
|
Antibiotic resistance level (ESBL-EC) |
/ |
median 84.9% (range 77.4–92.2%) |
Estimated |
/ |
Cumulative resistance level across simulated antibiotic consumption data and assumed antibiograms |
| ε |
Colonization resistance |
/ |
1–1/Cauchy (6.06, 0.64) |
Estimated |
/ |
From expert opinion |
| η |
Resource competition |
/ |
(1/γ)/(1/γ + Cauchy(76.38, 5.35)) |
Estimated |
/ |
From expert opinion |
| ϕ |
Ecological release |
/ |
Cauchy(11.80, 0.80) |
Estimated |
/ |
From expert opinion |
| χe
|
HGT rate (equilibrium) |
day−1
|
χd/Log-Normal (1.36, 0.81) |
Estimated |
/ |
From expert opinion |
| χd
|
HGT rate (dysbiosis) |
day−1
|
-log(1-Weibull (0.94, 0.11)) /10 |
Estimated |
/ |
From expert opinion |
| ω |
Proportion of patients whose microbiota acquire ESBL gene following antibiotic exposure |
/ |
Binomial(132, 18/132)/132 × 0.382 |
Agence nationale de sécurité du médicament et des produits de santé, 2017; Bar-Yoseph et al., 2016
|
Mixed |
The proportion of patients in a meta-analysis who, subsequent to treatment, express resistance to the antibiotic with which treated (18/132), multiplied by the proportion of ESBLs among antibiotics consumed in French hospitals (38.2%) |
