Table 1.
Summary of key parameter ranges used for different population groups
| Prior distribution | Distribution | p-value (if applicable) | Data information | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (i) Injecting drug use | ||||
| Number of injections in the past year among PWID | ||||
| Female PWID-FSW; Male PWID; Male PWID-Clients | 1440 (IQR: 1080–1440) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| PWID-MSM | RR: 1.3 (95%CI: 1.0–1.7) | Log-normal | 0.0369 (χ2 test) | ECIV; (RR compared to male PWID) |
| Female PWID non-FSW | RR: 0.9 (95%CI: 0.8–1.0) | Log-normal | 0.0179 (χ2 test) | ECIV; (RR compared to male PWID) |
| Proportion of PWID who have ever shared syringes in the past 6 months | ||||
| Female PWID non-FSW; Male PWID only | 67.9% (63.3–72.5%) | Truncated normal | ECIV | |
| PWID-client | OR: 14.2 (95%CI: 1.91–104.9) | Log-normal | < 0.0001 (χ2 test) | ECIV; (OR compared to male PWID) |
| PWID-MSM | OR: 3.0 (95%CI: 1.0–10.29) | Log-normal | 0. 0691 (χ2 test) | ECIV; (OR compared to male PWID) |
| PWID-FSW | OR: 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0–2.26) | Log-normal | 0.0471 (χ2 test) | ECIV; (OR compared to male PWID) |
| Proportion who shared at last injection (if shared in the past 6 months) – same estimate used for all PWID groups | 45.9% (38.7–53.2%) | Truncated normal | ECIV | |
| (ii) Men who have sex with men | ||||
| Proportion of MSM with at least one main male partner in last year | 62.3% (95%CI: 55.4 – 69.2%) | Truncated normal | Proyecto H | |
| Number of main male partners per year (among those that have them in last year) | 2 (IQR: 1–2) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Frequency of sex acts in past year with each main partner | 25.2 (IQR: 10.2–78) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Consistency of condom use for main partners of MSM | 60.8% (52.3–69.2%) | Truncated normal | Proyecto H | |
| Proportion of MSM with at least one casual male partner in last year | 60.3% (53.2–67.2%) | Truncated normal | Proyecto H | |
| Number of casual male partners per year (among those that have them in last year) | 6 (IQR: 0–24) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Frequency of sex acts in past year with each casual partner | 1.1 (IQR: 1–2) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Consistency of condom use for casual partners of MSM | 77.9% (71.1–84.8%) | Truncated normal | Proyecto H | |
| (iii) Commercial sex – Female sex workers and their clients | ||||
| Number of commercial sex contacts per year | ||||
| FSW-PWID | 180 (IQR: 72–360) | Triangular | MAPA and MMS | |
| FSW non-PWID | 120 (IQR: 60–240) | Triangular | MAPA and MMS | |
| Clients | 12 (IQR: 6–24) | Triangular | Sexo Seguro | |
| Consistency of condom use in last commercial sex act amongb | ||||
| Non-PWID FSW reported with clients | 85.5% (82.0–89.0%) | Normal | MAPA | |
| PWID FSW reported with clients | RR: 0.8 (95%CI: 0.6–0.9) | Truncated log-normal | < 0.001 (χ2 test) | MAPA; (RR compared to non-PWID FSW) |
| Clients reported with FSW (vaginal sex) | 54.8% (48.3–61.3%) | Normal | Sexo Seguro | |
| Clients reported with FSW (anal sex) | 45.8% (32.7–58.9%) | Normal | Sexo Seguro | |
| Proportion of commercial sex acts that are vaginal | ||||
| FSW with client non-PWID | 84.5% (81.7–87.4%) | Truncated normal | Sexo Seguro | |
| FSW with client PWID | RR 0.9 (95%CI: 0.8–1) | Log normal | 0.0325 (χ2 test) | Sexo Seguro |
| (iv) Heterosexual main partnerships | ||||
| Percentage of each key population with a main partner—included in Supplementary materials as different for each group | ||||
| Frequency of vaginal sex acts in past year among | ||||
| Female PWID non-FSW with males | 48 (IQR: 5–48) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| FSW (PWID and non-PWID) with males | 48 (IQR: 20–48) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| Male PWID with females | 48 (IQR: 20–48) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| Male Clients with females | 60 (IQR: 24–120) | Triangular | Hombre Seguro | |
| MSM with females | 24 (IQR: 6–60) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Frequency of anal sex acts in past year amonga | ||||
| All females with males | 0 (IQR: 0–5) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| Males (non-MSM) with females | 0—6 | Uniform | ECIV/Hombre Seguro | |
| MSM with females | 6 (IQR: 0.96–19.5) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Consistency of condom use in last sex act for main partnerships | Range over max and min for different surveys | |||
| Vaginal sex | 8.7–28.3% | Uniform | ||
| Anal sex | 4–32.3% | Uniform | ||
| (iv) Heterosexual casual partnerships | ||||
| Percentage of each key population with at least one casual partner – included in Supplementary materials as different for each group | ||||
| Number of casual partners in past year | ||||
| Female PWID non-FSW with males | 2 (IQR: 2-4) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| FSW PWID with males | 6 (IQR: 4–20) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| Male PWID with females | 4 (IQR: 4–6) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| MSM with females | 12 (IQR: 6–24) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Clients with females | 9 (IQR: 6–12) | Triangular | Sexo Seguro | |
| Frequency of vaginal sex acts in past year among | ||||
| Female PWID non-FSW with males | 0.75 (IQR: 0–2.5) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| FSW PWID with males | 1.25 (IQR: 0.007–8) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| Male PWID with females | 0.833 (IQR: 0–6) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| MSM with females | 1 (IQR: 1–1.5) | Triangular | Proyecto H | |
| Clients with females | 1.3 (IQR: 1–3) | Triangular | Sexo Seguro | |
| Frequency of anal sex acts in past year amonga | ||||
| All females with all males | 0 (IQR: 0–0.25) | Triangular | ECIV | |
| All males with all females | 0–1 | Uniform | Range over male surveys | |
| Consistency of condom use in last sex act for casual partnerships | Take range over all surveys | |||
| Vaginal sex | 23.3–60.3% | Uniform | ||
| Anal sex | 5.2–88.7% | Uniform | ||
This is included to give a summary with full details of the data used to calibrate the model and prior parameter ranges in the supplementary materials Note that for normal and log-normal distributions the mean and 95% confidence intervals (CI) are given; for triangular distributions the median and interquartile range were used to create the distribution (unless otherwise stated); for uniform distributions a range was taken over the data
aTo determine frequency of anal sex acts in the past year the rates between males and females are both sampled and then the average of the two is used in the model
bCondom use estimates for commercial sex were averaged across reported use by FSW and clients