Table 1.

Prior distributions and posterior estimates with 95% credible intervals of all calibrated epidemiological model parameters.

Parameter (units)	Prior distribution	2.5th centile	Median	97.5th centile
Unadjusted risk of transmission per contact	Uniform, support: [0.04, 0.07]	0.0413	0.0463	0.0602
Incubation period (days)	Truncated normal, mean: 5.5, standard deviation: 0.97 support: [1, infinity)	4.35	6.06	7.62
Duration of active disease (days)	Truncated normal, mean: 6.5, standard deviation: 0.77 support: [4, infinity)	5.23	6.47	7.86
Pre-ICU period (days)	Truncated normal, mean: 12.7, standard deviation: 4 support: [4, infinity)	6.72	13.0	20.0
Infection fatality rate for ≥75 age group	Uniform, support: [0.05, 0.3]	0.071	0.189	0.289
Hospitalisation rate adjuster	Uniform, support: [0.5, 5]	1.27	3.02	4.73
Infectiousness of asymptomatic persons multiplier	Uniform, support: [0.2, 0.8]	0.227	0.509	0.762
Starting infectious population (persons)	Uniform, support: [20, 70]	21.6	37.3	66.6
Case detection rate at one test per 1,000 per day (proportion)	Uniform, support: [0.05, 0.3]	0.081	0.179	0.285
Proportion of contacts identified at prevalence of one case per 1,000 population	Uniform, support: [0.2, 0.5]	0.209	0.341	0.487
Inter-service mixing (%)	Uniform, support: [0.005, 0.05]	0.00591	0.0217	0.0471
Effect of physical distancing	Uniform, support: [0, 0.6]	0.072	0.374	0.564
Effect of face coverings	Uniform, support: [0, 0.6]	0.329	0.459	0.556
Reduction in the effect of home contacts	Uniform, support: [0, 0.4]	0.0147	0.206	0.389
Service-specific contact rate multipliers
North Metro and West Metro	Truncated normal, mean: 1, standard deviation: 0.5, support: [0.5, infinity)	0.96	1.25	1.63
South Metro and South East Metro		0.70	1.01	1.34
Barwon South West		0.58	0.95	1.41
Other regional services		0.53	0.71	1.01