. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Dec 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2021 Dec 1;88(4):e28–e30. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0000000000002791

Table 1.

Estimated Percentages and Numbers of MSM with Indications for PrEP Use, 3 studies

	NHANES 2009–2016^A	WEISS ET AL., 2020^A	SMITH ET AL., 2018^A
Percentage (95% CI)	33.7% (22.1%–47.7%)	34.0% (32.4%–35.6%)	24.7% ^c
Number (year)	1,355,633^b (2016)	--	813,970 (2015)

^a.

Values shown are the percentage and number of sexually active HIV-uninfected MSM.

^b.

Determined by applying the estimated percentage from the NHANES 2009–2016 analysis (37.3%) of all sexually active MSM aged 13 and older with risk behaviors consistent with recommended PrEP use (i.e., not limited to HIV-uninfected MSM) to the HOPE model 2010 initial population of all sexually active MSM to identify high-risk MSM. Surveillance-based estimates of HIV infections among MSM were then distributed between high-risk and low-risk MSM to match a 2010 calibration target of 23.4% HIV prevalence among high-risk MSM. Uninfected, high-risk MSM, by definition are indicated for PrEP use. Using the 2010 population inputs, we ran the HOPE model from 2010 through 2016 to simulate the number of HIV-uninfected MSM with indications for PrEP use in 2016.

^c.

Determined using 2007–2012 NHANES data on risk behavior among sexually active HIV-uninfected MSM aged 18–59 years.

Abbreviations: MSM= men who have sex with men; PrEP = preexposure prophylaxis; NHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey; HOPE = HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics