Table 1.

Essential inputs for the model

Name	Live value		Distribution	Reference
Age distribution of Breast cancer			Beta	Kantelhardt, et al. [14]
30–39		0.000853
40–49		0.000878
50–59		0.00079
60–69		0.000656
Stage progression transition probabilities
Stage I	Age 40–49	Age 50–59	Beta	Gocgun et al. [15]
Remission to local recurrence	0.01	0.009
Remission to distal recurrence	0.000016	0.000025
Local recurrence to distal recurrence	0.062	0.052
Local recurrence to cancer death	0.013
Distal recurrence to cancer death	0.555	0.137
Stage II & III			Beta
Remission to local recurrence	0.018	0.016
Remission to distal recurrence	0.024	0.105
Local recurrence to distal recurrence	0.165	0.13
Distal recurrence to cancer death	0.386	0.423
Stage IV			Beta
Distal recurrence to cancer death	0.386	0.423
Mammography sensitivity and specificity (40–49, 50–59 years)			Beta	Keen et al. [16]
Sensitivity		0.821, 0.921
Specificity		0.859, 0.859
Breast cancer stage distribution, screened			MBT	Wong et al. [17]
Stage I		0.521
Stage II		0.382
Stage III		0.057
Stage IV		0.041
Breast cancer stage distribution, Non-screened			MBT	Tesfaw et al. [18]
Stage I		0.1
Stage II		0.189
Stage III		0.569
Stage IV		0.143
FNAC(USD)		22	Invariant	Personal communication
Cost of mammography(USD)			Invariant	Personal communication
Government Institutions		4.5
Private institutions		42
Doctor visit cost		6
Treatment cost(USD)			Gamma
Stage I		160		Hoang Lan, et al. [19]
Stage II		458.48
Stage III		850.45
Stage IV		668.7
Expected life, 40–44		36.10367697	Gamma	World Health Organization [19]
Expected life, 45–49		31.72113989	Gamma	World Health Organization [19]

FNAC fine-needle aspiration cytology, MBT multivariate beta distribution, USD United States Dollars