Table 4. Number of total and new counties in the top decile of overdose death rates correctly predicted by the benchmark and model each year.

In the top portion of the table (Top Decile), the number of counties in the top decile (n = 310) that were accurately predicted (i.e., true positives) as such are presented for each year and each approach. The number of false positives (i.e., counties incorrectly predicted to be in the top decile) can be calculated by subtracting the number of true positives from 310. In the bottom half, the number of counties that newly entered the top decile (i.e., were not in the top decile the year before) that were accurately predicted as such are presented for each year and each approach.

	Benchmark	Negative Binomial
	Top Decile	Top Decile
2013	102/310 (32.9%)	129/310 (41.6%)
2014	89/310 (28.7%)	145/310 (46.8%)
2015	104/310 (33.5%)	158/310 (51.0%)
2016	111/310 (35.8%)	154/310 (49.7%)
2017	132/310 (42.6%)	176/310 (56.8%)
2018	122/310 (39.4%)	171/310 (55.2%)
	Newly in Top Decile	Newly in Top Decile
2014	8/175 (4.6%)	46/175 (26.3%)
2015	6/170 (3.5%)	40/170 (23.5%)
2016	6/165 (3.6%)	37/165 (22.4%)
2017	4/149 (2.7%)	38/149 (25.5%)
2018	7/149 (4.7%)	33/149 (22.1%)