Table 2.

Assessment of 10-year probability, versus actual outcome, of mortality and hypertension-related morbidity for 848 patient–physician pairs (z-test comparing proportions).

	All patients (n = 848)		Primary healthcare centres (n = 674)		Secondary/tertiary healthcare (n = 174)
	Physician	Patient	Physician	Patient	Physician	Patient
Heart failure (n = 117)
Estimated without treatment	0.54 (0.51–0.57)	0.67 (0.63–0.70)	0.54 (0.51–0.57)	0.64 (0.60–0.69)	0.58 (0.50–0.66)	0.71 (0.66–0.77)
Estimated with treatment	0.24 (0.23–0.26)	0.14 (0.12–0.15)	0.24 (0.22–0.26)	0.13 (0.11–0.14)	0.25 (0.22–0.31)	0.14 (0.13–0.19)
Outcome	0.15		0.13		0.23
Outcome vs. estimated with treatment	p < 0.001	p = 0.38	p < 0.001	p = 1.000	p = 0.32	p = 0.02
Acute myocardial infarction (n = 66)
Estimated without treatment	0.54 (0.51–0.57)	0.75 (0.73–0.78)	0.55 (0.51–0.58)	0.72 (0.69–0.76)	0.51 (0.44–0.59)	0.78 (0.72–0.81)
Estimated with treatment	0.26 (0.25–0.29)	0.16 (0.14–0.18)	0.27 (0.25–0.29)	0.15 (0.13–0.17)	0.25 (0.19–0.31)	0.17 (0.15–0.23)
Outcome	0.08		0.08		0.10
Outcome vs. estimated with treatment	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001
Stroke (n = 90)
Estimated without treatment	0.57 (0.54–0.59)	0.74 (0.71–0.76)	0.57 (0.53–0.59)	0.74 (0.71–0.76)	0.58 (0.54–0.64)	0.8 (0.77–0.82)
Estimated with treatment	0.25 (0.24–0.27)	0.15 (0.14–0.17)	0.25 (0.24–0.27)	0.15 (0.13–0.17)	0.27 (0.20–0.30)	0.16 (0.13–0.21)
Outcome	0.11		0.10		0.14
Outcome vs. estimated with treatment	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p < 0.001	p = 0.32
Death due to all cases (n = 162)
Estimated without treatment	0.45 (0.39–0.47)	0.70 (0.65–0.74)	0.45 (0.39–0.49)	0.67 (0.62–0.71)	0.43 (0.33–0.49)	0.78 (0.72–0.83)
Estimated with treatment	0.18 (0.16–0.20)	0.10 (0.09–0.11)	0.19 (0.16–0.21)	0.10 (0.09–0.11)	0.15 (0.12–0.21)	0.11 (0.08–0.17)
Outcome	0.19		0.20		0.19
Outcome vs. estimated with treatment	p = 0.12	p < 0.001	p = 0.49	p < 0.001	p = 0.29	p = 0.005