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. 2020 May 2;38(2):166–175. doi: 10.1080/02813432.2020.1753345

Table 3.

Outcome per decile of 10-year probability of hypertension-related morbidity and total mortality as assessed by patients and physicians.

    Deciles according to assessment by the patients
Deciles according to assessment by the physicians
  Decile Upper limit in assessed probability Assessed probability – average per decile Actual average outcome per decile Upper limit in assessed probability Assessed probability – average per decile Actual average outcome per decile
Heart 1 2% 1.1% 12.3% 6% 3.7% 6.7%
failure 2 4% 3.6% 14.3% 10% 8.5% 8.8%
  3 7% 5.9% 16.8% 15% 13.2% 10.0%
  4 9% 8.4% 10.9% 19% 17.4% 7.4%
  5 14% 12.0% 10.7% 24% 22.1% 7.2%
  6 18% 16.4% 13.4% 31% 28.2% 15.5%
  7 26% 22.3% 13.6% 40% 35.3% 16.7%
  8 37% 32.0% 13.5% 51% 46.6% 19.1%
  9 49% 44.1% 13.8% 64% 57.8% 23.2%
  10 98% 66.2% 20.0% 100% 76.2% 26.0%
AMI 1 2% 1.1% 4.0% 7% 3.5% 3.1%
  2 5% 4.1% 10.2% 11% 9.3% 3.9%
  3 7% 6.5% 5.4% 17% 14.6% 4.4%
  4 11% 9.4% 9.0% 22% 19.9% 4.1%
  5 16% 13.9% 10.3% 27% 24.8% 8.5%
  6 21% 18.7% 7.4% 32% 29.7% 7.7%
  7 30% 26.1% 10.8% 41% 37.0% 8.5%
  8 44% 37.1% 3.5% 51% 47.0% 7.7%
  9 53% 48.6% 2.4% 63% 56.7% 7.6%
  10 98% 71.4% 15.2% 96% 76.1% 11.5%
Stroke 1 2% 1.1% 7.5% 5% 2.9% 5.5%
  2 4% 3.4% 11.0% 11% 8.6% 5.9%
  3 7% 6.1% 11.4% 15% 13.6% 4.2%
  4 10% 9.0% 8.8% 19% 17.4% 7.7%
  5 15% 12.9% 8.0% 25% 22.8% 10.2%
  6 21% 18.3% 10.2% 30% 27.9% 7.9%
  7 30% 26.3% 15.5% 38% 34.2% 9.0%
  8 42% 36.1% 12.4% 50% 45.3% 17.2%
  9 54% 48.3% 11.9% 64% 56.9% 16.7%
  10 98% 73.1% 7.8% 100% 75.8% 23.7%
Death 1 1% 0.5% 9.8% 3% 1.9% 10.7%
  2 3% 2.4% 16.5% 6% 5.1% 6.4%
  3 5% 4.4% 18.8% 9% 7.9% 12.5%
  4 7% 6.5% 21.5% 13% 11.2% 12.7%
  5 10% 8.9% 15.7% 18% 15.8% 12.4%
  6 16% 13.4% 13.5% 25% 21.8% 14.6%
  7 25% 20.7% 17.3% 33% 29.3% 23.5%
  8 39% 31.7% 25.6% 47% 39.5% 29.4%
  9 53% 47.0% 28.6% 62% 53.1% 28.4%
  10 100% 74.8% 25.9% 100% 77.9% 44.9%

n = 848 patient–physician pairs. See also Supplementary Figure S2.