Table 3.
Deciles according to assessment by the patients |
Deciles according to assessment by the physicians |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decile | Upper limit in assessed probability | Assessed probability – average per decile | Actual average outcome per decile | Upper limit in assessed probability | Assessed probability – average per decile | Actual average outcome per decile | |
Heart | 1 | 2% | 1.1% | 12.3% | 6% | 3.7% | 6.7% |
failure | 2 | 4% | 3.6% | 14.3% | 10% | 8.5% | 8.8% |
3 | 7% | 5.9% | 16.8% | 15% | 13.2% | 10.0% | |
4 | 9% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 19% | 17.4% | 7.4% | |
5 | 14% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 24% | 22.1% | 7.2% | |
6 | 18% | 16.4% | 13.4% | 31% | 28.2% | 15.5% | |
7 | 26% | 22.3% | 13.6% | 40% | 35.3% | 16.7% | |
8 | 37% | 32.0% | 13.5% | 51% | 46.6% | 19.1% | |
9 | 49% | 44.1% | 13.8% | 64% | 57.8% | 23.2% | |
10 | 98% | 66.2% | 20.0% | 100% | 76.2% | 26.0% | |
AMI | 1 | 2% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 7% | 3.5% | 3.1% |
2 | 5% | 4.1% | 10.2% | 11% | 9.3% | 3.9% | |
3 | 7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 17% | 14.6% | 4.4% | |
4 | 11% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 22% | 19.9% | 4.1% | |
5 | 16% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 27% | 24.8% | 8.5% | |
6 | 21% | 18.7% | 7.4% | 32% | 29.7% | 7.7% | |
7 | 30% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 41% | 37.0% | 8.5% | |
8 | 44% | 37.1% | 3.5% | 51% | 47.0% | 7.7% | |
9 | 53% | 48.6% | 2.4% | 63% | 56.7% | 7.6% | |
10 | 98% | 71.4% | 15.2% | 96% | 76.1% | 11.5% | |
Stroke | 1 | 2% | 1.1% | 7.5% | 5% | 2.9% | 5.5% |
2 | 4% | 3.4% | 11.0% | 11% | 8.6% | 5.9% | |
3 | 7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 15% | 13.6% | 4.2% | |
4 | 10% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 19% | 17.4% | 7.7% | |
5 | 15% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 25% | 22.8% | 10.2% | |
6 | 21% | 18.3% | 10.2% | 30% | 27.9% | 7.9% | |
7 | 30% | 26.3% | 15.5% | 38% | 34.2% | 9.0% | |
8 | 42% | 36.1% | 12.4% | 50% | 45.3% | 17.2% | |
9 | 54% | 48.3% | 11.9% | 64% | 56.9% | 16.7% | |
10 | 98% | 73.1% | 7.8% | 100% | 75.8% | 23.7% | |
Death | 1 | 1% | 0.5% | 9.8% | 3% | 1.9% | 10.7% |
2 | 3% | 2.4% | 16.5% | 6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | |
3 | 5% | 4.4% | 18.8% | 9% | 7.9% | 12.5% | |
4 | 7% | 6.5% | 21.5% | 13% | 11.2% | 12.7% | |
5 | 10% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 18% | 15.8% | 12.4% | |
6 | 16% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 25% | 21.8% | 14.6% | |
7 | 25% | 20.7% | 17.3% | 33% | 29.3% | 23.5% | |
8 | 39% | 31.7% | 25.6% | 47% | 39.5% | 29.4% | |
9 | 53% | 47.0% | 28.6% | 62% | 53.1% | 28.4% | |
10 | 100% | 74.8% | 25.9% | 100% | 77.9% | 44.9% |
n = 848 patient–physician pairs. See also Supplementary Figure S2.