Fig. 1. Thermal reaction norms for each phytoplankton functional type.

Modeled exponential curves (colored lines) were fit to measured growth rates (N) using a 99th quantile regression and compared to the widely-used Eppley curve²⁸, which assessed phytoplankton collectively (gray dashed line, same in each panel). Extent of modeled curves (colored lines) denote limits of data. The 95% confidence intervals (shading) were determined using Markov chain marginal bootstrapping⁷⁵ and are centered at the median. Thermal reaction norms (n) for each isolate characterized are shown in black. The cyanobacteria group does not include diazotrophic species (“Methods”).