Fig. 3. Thermal capacities for each functional type.

Thermal performance metrics (a), including thermal safety margin (b, TSM = T_opt − T_hab), distance to the growth equivalence (c, DGE = T_µequiv − T_hab) and warming tolerance (d, WT = T_max − T_hab) are shown. An isolate existing below zero (dotted line) has already surpassed the given thermal capacity under historical, baseline conditions (1950–1970). For example, for the DGE (c), values of zero indicate individuals were isolated at temperatures at or above their T_opt. Gray solid line characterizes the amount of warming predicted for each latitude by 2100, with the shading representing longitudinal variation (sd). Violin plots within each figure (b–d) display the mean (points) and density distribution of thermal capacities for each functional group (Coccolithophores = CO, cyanobacteria = CY, diatoms = DT, dinoflagellates = DF). Only strains of known origin with good quality fit in T_max were used in calculations (CO = 24, CY = 31, DT = 115, DF = 38).