Table 4.
Model results of estimated change in all asthma related outcomes over 10 years
|
Outcome |
Number of surveys*in strata | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current wheeze | Severe asthma symptoms | Exercise wheeze | Night cough | Asthma ever | |||
| Model stratified by age group | |||||||
| Age 6–7 years | −0·22 (−1·00 to 0·57) | −0·24 (−0·63 to 0·15) | 0·78 (−0·31 to 1·87) | 3·21 (1·80 to 4·62) | 0·56 (−0·13 to 1·24) | 161 | |
| Age 13–14 years | −0·43 (−1·10 to 0·23) | −0·37 (−0·69 to −0·04) | 0·34 (−0·58 to 1·26) | 4·25 (3·06 to 5·44) | 1·25 (0·67 to 1·83) | 255 | |
| Model stratified by age group and income group | |||||||
| Age 6–7 years | |||||||
| Low income | −1·37 (−2·47 to −0·27) | −0·84 (−1·37 to −0·30) | −0·02 (−1·54 to 1·50) | 3·33 (1·34 to 5·32) | −1·56 (−2·48 to −0·65) | 31 | |
| Lower-middle income | 1·99 (0·33 to 3·66) | 1·32 (0·51 to 2·12) | 3·66 (1·36 to 5·96) | 5·29 (2·28 to 8·29) | 0·06 (−1·33 to 1·44) | 15 | |
| Upper-middle income | 0·50 (−0·82 to 1·82) | 0·20 (−0·44 to 0·84) | 1·66 (−0·17 to 3·48) | 1·41 (−0·98 to 3·80) | 1·19 (0·09 to 2·28) | 43 | |
| High income | −0·22 (−1·24 to 0·80) | −0·39 (−0·88 to 0·11) | 0·25 (−1·16 to 1·66) | 3·48 (1·63 to 5·32) | 2·07 (1·22 to 2·92) | 72 | |
| Age 13–14 years | |||||||
| Low income | −1·67 (−2·70 to −0·64) | −1·03 (−1·53 to −0·53) | −0·58 (−2·00 to 0·85) | 4·31 (2·45 to 6·17) | −0·84 (−1·70 to 0·02) | 47 | |
| Lower-middle income | 1·69 (0·13 to 3·25) | 1·13 (0·37 to 1·88) | 3·10 (0·95 to 5·25) | 6·26 (3·46 to 9·07) | 0·78 (−0·52 to 2·08) | 40 | |
| Upper-middle income | 0·19 (−1·06 to 1·45) | 0·01 (−0·60 to 0·62) | 1·10 (−0·63 to 2·83) | 2·38 (0·12 to 4·65) | 1·91 (0·86 to 2·95) | 62 | |
| High income | −0·52 (−1·47 to 0·43) | −0·58 (−1·04 to −0·12) | −0·31 (−1·62 to 1·00) | 4·45 (2·73 to 6·17) | 2·79 (2·00 to 3·58) | 106 | |
| Model stratified by age group and grouped region | |||||||
| Age 6–7 years | |||||||
| Africa and Eastern Mediterranean | 2·61 (0·76 to 4·46) | 1·46 (0·57 to 2·35) | 4·99 (2·41 to 7·57) | 6·64 (3·28 to 9·99) | 0·21 (−1·38 to 1·79) | 10 | |
| America | 0·01 (−1·29 to 1·31) | 0·13 (−0·50 to 0·76) | 1·23 (−0·56 to 3·03) | 1·43 (−0·92 to 3·77) | 0·88 (−0·24 to 1·99) | 29 | |
| Europe† | 1·08 (−0·08 to 2·24) | 0·43 (−0·13 to 0·99) | 1·60 (−0·01 to 3·21) | 4·67 (2·57 to 6·78) | 2·73 (1·74 to 3·73) | 64 | |
| South-East Asia and Western Pacific | −1·35 (−2·28 to −0·41) | −0·96 (−1·41 to −0·51) | −0·33 (−1·64 to 0·98) | 2·71 (1·01 to 4·42) | −0·69 (−1·49 to 0·11) | 58 | |
| Age 13–14 years | |||||||
| Africa and Eastern Mediterranean | 2·09 (0·40 to 3·78) | 1·15 (0·33 to 1·96) | 4·15 (1·80 to 6·51) | 7·41 (4·34 to 10·47) | 0·78 (−0·68 to 2·23) | 34 | |
| America | −0·51 (−1·73 to 0·71) | −0·19 (−0·77 to 0·40) | 0·39 (−1·29 to 2·07) | 2·20 (0·00 to 4·40) | 1·45 (0·40 to 2·50) | 50 | |
| Europe† | 0·56 (−0·51 to 1·63) | 0·11 (−0·40 to 0·63) | 0·76 (−0·73 to 2·25) | 5·45 (3·50 to 7·39) | 3·30 (2·38 to 4·22) | 100 | |
| South-East Asia and Western Pacific | −1·87 (−2·78 to −0·96) | −1·28 (−1·72 to −0·84) | −1·17 (−2·44 to 0·10) | 3·49 (1·83 to 5·14) | −0·12 (−0·90 to 0·66) | 71 | |
Data are absolute percentage points difference (95% CI). Results from mixed model with random intercepts for country and centre, incorporating effect modification, fully adjusted for age group, income group, and grouped region (n=416). ISAAC=International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood.
*
N=number of surveys contributing to each stratified analysis.
†
Malta was in ISAAC's Eastern Mediterranean region but has been moved to the European region in modelling for this analysis.