TABLE 2.
Change in Personal ART Stockouts and ART Adherence After the Start of the Lockdown (Regression Results)
| Change in Risk of Personal ART Stockout on a Given Day (Full Mildmay Cohort) | Change in Risk of Personal ART Stockout on a Given Day (MEMS Cohort) | Change in % Adherence (MEMS Cohort) | ||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Unadjusted | Interrupted Time Series | Unadjusted | Interrupted Time Series | Unadjusted | Interrupted Time Series | |
| Prelockdown trend (d) | 2.27e-05*** (3.08e-06) | 1.50e-05 (1.17e-05) | −0.00418 (0.00309) | |||
| April 2020 | 0.0555*** (0.00203) | 0.0484*** (0.00179) | 0.0349*** (0.00970) | 0.0300*** (0.00885) | 1.032 (1.172) | 2.278* (1.172) |
| May 2020 | 0.161*** (0.00294) | 0.153*** (0.00280) | 0.118*** (0.0167) | 0.113*** (0.0158) | 0.329 (1.238) | 1.702 (1.267) |
| June 2020 | 0.209*** (0.00324) | 0.201*** (0.00312) | 0.170*** (0.0196) | 0.164*** (0.0189) | −0.927 (1.315) | 0.573 (1.405) |
| July 2020 | 0.146*** (0.00293) | 0.136*** (0.00277) | 0.0896*** (0.0155) | 0.0834*** (0.0146) | −0.279 (1.195) | 1.349 (1.383) |
| August 2020 | 0.105*** (0.00268) | 0.0951*** (0.00245) | 0.0691*** (0.0144) | 0.0624*** (0.0131) | 1.998 (1.244) | 3.755** (1.494) |
| September 2020 | 0.0888*** (0.00253) | 0.0783*** (0.00223) | 0.0592*** (0.0131) | 0.0521*** (0.0116) | 0.824 (1.289) | 2.709* (1.596) |
| Observations (client days) | 11,550,530 | 11,550,530 | 271,836 | 271,836 | 230,498 | 230,498 |
| R-squared | 0.047 | 0.047 | 0.049 | 0.049 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| No. of clients | 14,632 | 14,632 | 324 | 324 | 324 | 324 |
| Average before lockdown | 0.0487 | 0.0487 | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | 79.37 | 79.37 |
Data were analyzed at the client day level. Columns (1) and (2) include all clients with at least 2 ART prescriptions between July 2019 and March 2020. Columns (3)–(6) include the sample for which we had MEMS cap adherence data. The stockout variable is set to 1 if the client did not have ART on a given day based on pharmacy refill records and assumes they took their pills as prescribed. Coefficients in columns (1) through (4) can be interpreted as the change in the risk of running out of ART on a given day in each month compared with before the pandemic (if pills were taken as prescribed). Adherence is the % of prescribed doses taken on a given day based on MEMS cap openings. Adherence coefficients in columns (5) and (6) can be interpreted as the percentage point change in ART adherence in each month compared with before the pandemic. Coefficients in columns (2), (4), and (6) adjust for the prelockdown trend in the outcome. The government-mandated lockdown started on March 25 and ended on June 2, 2020. There are more client day observations in columns (3) and (4) than in columns (5) and (6) because we have up-to-date pharmaceutical records for all 324 clients, but we are missing MEMS cap data for some clients in later months. See Figure 1 for sample sizes with adherence data in each month. Standard errors, which are clustered by individual, are in parentheses.
***P < 0.01, **P < 0.05, *P < 0.1.