Fig. 1. Prediction errors of the SpatioTemporal eXtreme Gradient Boosting (STXGB) models in one-week prediction horizon against a temporal autoregressive model without spatial lags (TXGB).

a Prediction MAE and b prediction RMSE of one-week ahead predictions of total new cases. STXGB-FB, which incorporates Facebook-derived features, including spatial lags based on Social Connectedness Index as well as Facebook-measured movement data, outperforms other models on average as indicated in Table 2.