Table 3.

Comparison of the mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) generated by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub Baseline model and our STXGB-FB and STXGB-SG models in 1- to 4-week prediction horizons across all forecasting dates.

Forecast date	Model	Percentage improvement in MAE compared to COVIDhub-Baseline
		1-week horizon	2-week horizon	3-week horizon	4-week horizon
2020/10/25	STXGB-FB	15.83	22.50	31.75	44.16
	STXGB-SG	9.58	18.73	27.73	36.88
2020/11/01	STXGB-FB	10.66	26.93	38.08	48.66
	STXGB-SG	3.20	18.92	29.86	39.80
2020/11/08	STXGB-FB	3.01	17.43	24.34	28.18
	STXGB-SG	−7.62	8.76	11.96	21.18
2020/11/15	STXGB-FB	0.16	16.13	26.98	31.57
	STXGB-SG	−9.66	16.91	25.81	28.54
2020/11/22	STXGB-FB	7.78	17.64	23.40	22.35
	STXGB-SG	9.31	16.03	22.49	23.30
2020/11/29	STXGB-FB	8.52	11.61	11.15	2.51
	STXGB-SG	2.49	9.01	11.34	7.66
2020/12/06	STXGB-FB	−4.18	−3.27	−1.19	1.46
	STXGB-SG	−6.74	−1.14	3.26	5.87
2020/12/13	STXGB-FB	−14.94	−14.79	−0.36	3.54
	STXGB-SG	−20.93	−16.74	−1.88	9.91
2020/12/20	STXGB-FB	−21.13	−19.84	−26.90	−19.51
	STXGB-SG	−24.94	−21.10	−2.66	5.86
2020/12/27	STXGB-FB	−0.08	6.66	5.10	12.68
	STXGB-SG	3.89	2.97	3.92	10.88
2021/01/03	STXGB-FB	−50.03	−35.10	−19.49	−3.58
	STXGB-SG	−50.57	−34.55	−12.83	−3.68
2021/01/10	STXGB-FB	4.77	28.44	41.67	47.67
	STXGB-SG	5.98	25.98	38.21	46.77
2021/01/17	STXGB-FB	−2.47	15.83	31.16	38.58
	STXGB-SG	−10.30	10.88	31.64	33.72
2021/01/24	STXGB-FB	−7.93	0.26	0.75	11.94
	STXGB-SG	2.65	8.06	11.13	16.44
Average Pct. Change	STXGB-FB	−3.57	6.46	13.32	19.30
	STXGB-SG	−6.69	4.48	14.28	20.22

The average values for each model and across each horizon are bold-faced.