Figure 1.

County-level estimates of excess all-cause mortality during 2020, Source: Authors’ analysis of data from the Veterans Health Administration's Corporate Data Warehouse. Notes: The figure displays observed-to-expected (O/E) mortality ratios for 2020, defined as total observed deaths versus total deaths predicted by the regression model. O/E ratios were estimated via a covariate-adjusted quasi-likelihood Poisson regression with county fixed effects and 5-fold cross validation as described in the text.